Crowd Forecast News Report #268

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111118.pdf

Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 12th to 16th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 51.4%
Lower: 48.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 64.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 62.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.7%

Responses Submitted This Week: 37
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 45.2

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 75% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 70.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 2.00% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 12 times in the previous 267 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 75% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.41% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 75% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.7%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Wicker won
• Sazonality rebound with a bottom market situation.
• Earnings and holiday spending
• holidays
• Earnings reports.
• Seasonal …. strong month in November…. bullish overall ….
• Continued battle between bulls and bears, net up move into monthly expiration.
• history
• still buying
• Consumer confidence high Holiday spending will be up Possible trade agreement with China
• 2811 seems to be a good level for next week because of historical relevance of that level

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Current momentum downward will take some time to subside.
• Still in a down trend, below 50 SMA
• Mid-term elections are over, so seasonality factor is gone.
• spy below 277
• The downside correction continues until the public says “just get me out”.
• The S&P hit it’s weekly high on Thursday, then fell on Friday. This high was below the high of early October. This lower high suggests general market weakness. Concern about the Fed raising rates and tariffs is expected to continue.
• Feds next raise Wii send rates over 3%
• tariffs
• at resistance – sell rallies
• Elliot wave pattern
• Technicals turning over, plus a dearth of good news.
• The market was down last Thursday and Friday, Friday was bad.

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Question #4. What do you think are the main reasons why most traders are not successful and consistent? What could the average trader do to improve consistency?

• need a rule set to follow that profits in up and down markets and most don’t have that.
• Protective put
• discipline –put stops in first-patience
• trade less often
• Emotion
• DK
• I am not a successful swing trader as my brain fools me into taking the better looking trades and not the 3/10 ones which usually work out :(
• short term thesis
• Jumping into trades too early (before enough evidence is in) is a common problem.
• Inconsistent practices plus no mechanism to handle small losses as part of a larger successful plan.
• Follow a plan.
• Not having trade plan, rules
• Bad strategy
• Jumping in and out at the wrong time, at too large a position. Traders can do better by paying attention to logic of market moves, e.g., when sellers and buyers exhaust themselves on down and up moves.
• Don’t have a trading plan and if they do they don’t follow it consistently.
• Traders are there worst enemy… by far …. plus too much CNBC
• Lack of discipline. Turn off CNBC/Bloomberg/StockTwits, etc. Trade to your plan.

Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Nothing noted

Join us for this week’s shows:

Crowd Forecast News Episode #203
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 12th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com

Click here to find out more!

AYT is off this week but will be back on 11/20!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #56
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 20th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA