Crowd Forecast News Report #279
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport012719.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (January 28th to February 1st)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher/Lower Difference: 20.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.4%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.0%
Responses Submitted This Week: 25
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 42.2
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 57.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 52% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 0.26% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 60.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 11 times in the previous 278 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 45% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.69% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 55% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Tourism is still ok I think there are full travel areas still like Florida and ski areas
• General mood is upbeat
• Best six months of the year historically
• Government shutdown finished.
• Earnings surprises
• The shutdown is over for a few weeks and I think trade with China will get something done
• Seems like the market has a little momentum behind it now. the temporary truce in Washington and federal workers back to work should help too.
• sidewise to up while overbought, good consolidation, a/d, and momentum
• Earnings reports mostly positive, end of shutdown…for now.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• too much unstable things like china trade, iran, oil, etc
• gov spending gov open
• reaching resistance areas,
• need to re-test , plus big week for earnings could disrupt up move /
• Resistance will hold and the market will react to the numerous earnings reports this week.
• Data won’t be reailable
• End of month.
Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
• Watch market daily
• Watch general trends using candlestick and fibonacci techniques
• Rise in net worth
• Advance decline ratio
• Risk/reward ratio
• Watch them hourly.
• total return
• technical and seasonality
• 200day ma -we are still below 200 ma –and look for stacked ma,s ..8 over the 20 over the 50.heading up
• Return on capital
• Simple quantitive method and time accuracy measurement.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• For long term look at the Death Cross. Be inverse during bear markets and profit with this next bear.
• The question whether we will take a trade or not the upcoming week, I’m sure it shows a lot.
• Watch for first quarter early announcements
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #211
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 28th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #63
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, January 29th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests: