Crowd Forecast News Report #284
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport030319.pdf
Full web version of the report available below the ad.
Smooth Markets Never Made a Skilled Investor
I see a lot of panicked traders and worried investors right now. And with good cause because we’re not convinced that the turbulence in the markets isn’t set to continue for a while.
But there’s one guy we know, Jeff, who looks pretty relaxed right now. You see, Jeff’s investing approach can pinpoint stocks and profit from them no matter whether the market is soaring or nose-diving.
Crowd Forecast News Report #284:
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (March 4th to 8th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 57.5%
Lower: 42.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 15.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 61.4%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 62.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 60.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 1.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 41.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 60% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 52.8% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.02% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 57.5% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 75 times in the previous 283 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 60% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.19% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 60% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Trend with room to YTD high
• Based on New Highs and a trade deal with China, and continuation of the trend
• Still best six months of year historically
• Good Trump Presidential lederhip
• No such thing as a “quadruple top.” Hurdle should be cleared to flush out the bears. Bullish cross of 21dma and 200dma. Then once we’re over, we’ll have a dip to screw the algos and bandwagoners.
• March effect.
• trend is up
• Economy is good.
• Friday’s market closed in an upward direction; with the S&P ending above 2800. Momentum continues positive. So, upward we should march over the next few days at least.
• I have no idea.
• China/US deal still on.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• 500 index nearing roll over point
• Market way overvalued
• Major resistance. Due for correctional above
• Pullback is due
• OB- too much bullishness
• Market may need to consolidate.
• elliott wave
• Market is overbought. Earnings season is winding down. Washington still has problems with upcoming debt ceiling.
• don’t know
• Market topping
• Game up! Now retrace…
• All buying climaxes end – don’t they? eventually?
Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)
• Position size
• All above depending on type of instrument
• Set risk (stop) and set target so that the target is always greater than the risk. But it’s more complicated than that. For example you can’t just set your target for 100 ES points away and set your risk for 50 points. It has to be reasonable. So risk should be a certain percentage of your trading balance – maybe 1%. Then your target could be maybe 1.5%. That’s the idea anyway.
• in and out, occasionlly Stops
• stops
• Position size, position risk, scaling in, hedging.
• position size, stops
• ✋ s
• Scaling in/out (thank you, Jim Cramer–best advice ever). Profit/loss targets. Chart patterns.
• position size and stops
• Percentages of total trading amount.
• Fibonacci regression & fan
• calls
• Stops Scaling? C’mon
• position size
• Stops, Scale in/out, Moving Average’s
• Loss percentage limit
• All mentioned plus chart indicators.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Thanks for the reports
• none
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #215
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, March 4th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Tim Racette of EminiMind.com
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #68
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, March 5th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
