Crowd Forecast News Report #285

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport031019.pdf

Full web version of the report available below the ad.

There Was NO WAY He Was Going to Make It Until…

Like any young, high school gym teacher, Jason Bond struggled to make a living. And no matter how hard he trained, the weight of his college loans seemed heavier with each passing day. But what felt really heavy was the day that he looked at his retirement plan. There was NO WAY he was going to be able to make it on his paltry teacher’s salary (nor did he have any plans to become a greeter at Walmart!)

Learn more about his story here.

Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (March 11th to 15th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 38.2%
Lower: 61.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: -23.5%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 66.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 68.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 35
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.8

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 68% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 57.5% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 2.53% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 61.8% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 19 times in the previous 284 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 68% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.13% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 68% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• The market is oversold and should go up!! Watch the new lows vs highs.
• Trumped
• Options expiration week is usually an up week.
• Friday reversal leads to a bounce
• expect good news and mini correction bottoming out today
• Timing

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Economy slowdown no new jobs growth guys its 0ver
• Jobs need to go highest I think maybe higher for more of a bullish trend in the future new jobs of employment type even higher
• market topped months ago rebound ending lower job rate stocks getting slippery
• Global growth slow-down Trade & tariff wars El Stupido 65 Million economic refugees in the world- creating universal instability.
• Reversion to the mean
• We Are at s/p 500 200ma 2750 -,starting to see transports weakening dollar sideways, no leadership.
• Market is over sold and will over correct and after all the bad news will fall lower.
• reversion to the mean, fibonacci levels
• Elliott Wave 5
• we will bounce and then fail
• The downside correction that started last week will continue this week.
• Job creation faltering, yields inverting. Expecting any market strength to be shorted.
• mkts correcting now
• 50 and 200 dma going to collide with price on the daily chart….going down

The “Fish Hook Trader” and What He Caught

Question #4. Which trading platforms or brokers do you like the best for executing your trades?

• Tddirectinginvesting.ca/TOS ( think or swim)
• Trading View ( free version ) Tasty Trade is my primary platform, It’s OK but needs improvements. I also often use Finviz and Bar-charts.
• ib
• Edward Jones
• tos
• Sogo
• ThinkorSwim
• schwab
• ADM and use Fidessa which cld be much better :(
• tradestation
• Schwab
• Thinkorswim, Ninjatrader 7
• sogo and i don’t care for it nor td both suck
• TOS & Tasty
• TDAmeritrade mobile is what I use. Not excellent but it works pretty well..
• TradeStation
• Yours
• e*Trade
• Ameritrade/ Think or Swim
• td ameritrade
• e*trade

Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• 1. What research companies do U use for recession forecasts ? 2. That asked, what strategies used for hedging ?
• Tried several platforms and have never been content. A platform for me does not need all Think or Swim has to offer. The perfect platform needs to be user friendly – fractal screens -no confusion to open or close a trade – drag and drop stops on the charts etc.
• Thank you
• I like cash

Join us for this week’s shows:

Crowd Forecast News Episode #216
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, March 11th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA

Click here to find out more!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #69
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, March 12th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)