Crowd Forecast News Report #293
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport050519.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (May 6th to 10th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher/Lower Difference: 14.3%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 64.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 65.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.8%
Responses Submitted This Week: 30
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 39.4
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 61% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 72.2% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 65% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.17% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 57.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 18 times in the previous 292 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 61% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.42% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 61% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.7%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• greed, continued low interest rates, more earnings beats than misses, nobody really expects a china deal, good jobs report, iran will not start shooting,
• monetary policy, jobs reaction
• Mohammed phaka International
• Trend up continues
• The effects of the jobs number, and the prospect of higher flow of goods and services. Plus the dovish stance by the Fed, should cause the indexes to explore new highs. Even if they don’t get the cannabis craze.
• Reaching the price of 3000 should not be in this strong trend problem
• Blockchain, Technology, Internet of things, 5G
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Charts SPY options IV and OI
• Big increase on good economic news will be followed a dip as there will be no additional good news Monday.
• Market rise after sharp fall into last hour The pros distributing and 30 year at 2.92%
• waiting for wave 4 to start
• Because of the actions of the past 4 months
• It is overvalued
• It had a key reversal day last week.
• Market is still overbought and needs a downside correction. More earnings due this week.
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Question #4. What advice would you give and/or what resources would you recommend to someone who is new to trading?
• just trade the s&p, and 3 or four other stocks, but keep an eye on all sectors for a roll over down
• Read Jesse Livermore book. Use Udemy tutorials View all the TastyTrade tutorials Look at FinViz screeners
• talk to a registered investment adviser
• Read everything by the Masters and paper trade for a while.
• Mabarka International trading
• If you are looking for an easy way to make some money – go do something else.
• Paper trade using a checklist
• Go with w\hat you know, learn what you don’t, and invest with the future in mind.
• Stop losing in time, success must to come !
• Pay for a coach, it will be cheaper
• no advice
• Follow @marketminute on twitter.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• keep current, no buy and hold. Keep trailing stops tight.
• Vantage point software
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #223
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, May 6th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Michael Guess of DayTradeSafe.com (first time guest!)
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #76
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, May 7th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Marina Villatoro of TheTraderChick.com (first time guest!)
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)