Crowd Forecast News Report #305
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport072819.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (July 29th to August 2nd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher/Lower Difference: 20.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 66.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -1.6%
Responses Submitted This Week: 37
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 37.2
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 54% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.47% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 60.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 37 times in the previous 304 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 54% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.14% Lower for the week (one of those rare conditions where the markets moved Higher more frequently but the overall average move was Lower). Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 54% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• There will be a lower interest rate in the USA
• Earning season in line
• There is 86% (as of today) probability that the Fed will lower interest, S&P500 will be heading higher. The probability numbers are from CBOE Fed interest rate futures.
• Weak Fed will yield to political pressure.
• up in wave 3
• spy chart
• Earnings report
• Trend is up and into fresh air
• Positive news form the Fed. Plus earnings upside surprises.
• fed cut and just general momentum
• Price is currently creeping higher, it will do so until it breaks. < (duh on me). On a daily chart, I see divergence for lower. That divergence could go on for days, MTF RSI is above a 21 and 100 MA, it will take a week to see any change to lower.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• capitol hiss
• struggling and third attmp high now. forming a round and wedging top
• stocks overpriced will stop going up on positive news and the big money will begin distribution
• What’s the magic for going up?
• go up into the fed meeting and then sell off
• The market remains overbought. The market needs some backing and filling to get healthy. This is a very big week for earnings reports.
• The S&P is at the upper Bollinger band, with negative divergences. So, the odds favor a pullback.
• sell the news.
Question #4. What methods or techniques do you use to overcome the emotional aspects of trading?
• set a stop loss
• set a strict stop loss
• I look at the various charts.
• 50 years of obsevations
• I am very strong emotionally. I do not need methods or techniques.
• trade with smaller bet, buffer up
• high probability setups
• price action, VIX
• I use a fixed system based on an algorithm I designed.
• Fixed cross-overs of a set of indicators and use a Stop Loss for keeping your profits. Time in the market gives you experience which turns into confidence in time also.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• I hope I am right.
• market has some room to go up
• Life is good, find the large market turns and stay in that direction for weeks while adding to your position.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #232
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, July 29th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Erik Gebhard of Altavest.com
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #87
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, July 30th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)