Crowd Forecast News Report #306
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport080419.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (August 5th to 9th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher/Lower Difference: -50.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 64.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 60.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.0%
Responses Submitted This Week: 33
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 37.0
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 67% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 60.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 54% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 3.06% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 75.0% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower (this is the highest ever percentage of respondents predicting Lower in the history of this survey). Similar conditions have occurred 18 times in the previous 305 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct only 33% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.49% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 67% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• mkt is still in uptrend
• all chater
• a reversal, many good buys
• Because of over reaction of news
• my own technical analysis statitstics
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Trade war increasing intensity and Trump fans the flames until China responds.
• Reverse from the top of the megaphone trend line will continue
• Dip, economic uncertainty, VIX
• normal contraction in the march upward
• wave 5 finished
• The downside correction started this week and will continue for at least one more week.
• August is the start of ‘crash season.’
• The recent move down was on expanded volume. Trade war with China will hurt consumer sector, with no US-China settlement in sight. Projecting S&P down to 2800 or below before a bounce.
• Mood of the nation
• Major top this week Aug is a bad month, Major market top last week + August bad m0nth for market
• There seems to be a trend in place. Could be the summer slowdown is starting.
• Daily RSI has crossed lower
• huge drop in momentum broken support
Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)
• Position sizing
• only in stocks and will scale Out
• scaling in, trailing SL
• Trend , options of trend for stovks with good options
• Lost max. 2% of acc.size, trailing stop by 20 SMA
• initial stops / trailed stops; position size
• Position size
• For trading, usually equal amounts in several stocks.
• technical and fundamental position size, stops, entry and exit’s
• Loss mitigation
• position size, scaling in or out
• Positions size and dynamic exits
• position size and stop
• position sizing
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Keep records of why and trades.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #233
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, August 5th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #88
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, August 6th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com