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Crowd Forecast News Report #321

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111719.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 18th to 22nd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 56.0%
Lower: 44.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 12.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.2%

Responses Submitted This Week: 26
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 34.9

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 46.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.30% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 56.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 52 times in the previous 321 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 56% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.10% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 56% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Good economic news !
• trend is still up and no sign of a correction yet
• still finishing wave 5
• trend
• seasonnal time for higher stock market
• seasonal conditions, holiday shopping
• Law of physics, a body in motion tends to remain in motion. In this case UP. Not too confident that all is well in the economy and I trade with caution unless we build a solid base at these market levels and then blast off. So, the transd is UP until it is NOT!

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• We are ready for a reverion, to men,,way hi 9% above 50dma,,
• Flat to down a lot of volume came into DIS this week profit taking inevitable
• Continued overbought up to and including the monthly charts, rising on declining momentum, pundits are running out of solid credible reasons for a continued rally.
• market to enter a holding pattern to much dumb money sploshing around 4x normal volume on DIS on an upday signals major top in that stock and the rest of the market
• since I’m long, it must be going lower
• The S&P is approaching its upper Bollinger band at about 3126; and it tends to fall back when it hits it.
• Hopium will fade again when people start to realize that China trade rumors are just rumors being foisted on the american public by Trump and his lying co-conspirators. Read China’s word . They will not enter into an agreement without a release of all tariffs.
• Market is losing upside momentum. Earnings reports are coming to an end except for retail.

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Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)

• 8% stop loss—
• Stops
• Position sizing is critical and always honor your “hard” stop.
• position sizing and stops
• stops
• position size
• I set position sizes carefully, and exit losing trades more quickly than in earlier years.
• Good solid rules that I have developed over the years.
• trailing stop
• enter consumer discretionary spending companies
• My trade management depends on what type of trade I am in. Options are given a lot of room to work given that they are already very limited risk. Sometimes a stop on a new stock or ETF position as I scale into it and build a position. Some things I follow have a natural cycle and I will never take them off, selling options for income. Unless I see something very bad in the wind and accumulated profits are fast disappearing, my “forever stocks” are a hold until they are not.

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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Join us for this week’s shows:

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Crowd Forecast News Episode #246
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 18th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

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Analyze Your Trade Episode #103
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 19th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Felix Frey of OptionsGeek.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

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AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction