Crowd Forecast News Report #326
[AD] eBook: 18 Terrifyingly Good Tactics: Tricks and Treats for Trading SuccessThe new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport122219.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 23rd to 27th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 72.0%
Lower: 28.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 44.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 62.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 7.4%
Responses Submitted This Week: 26
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 33.6
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 62% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 63.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 54% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.18% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 72.0% predicting Higher with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 29 times in the previous 325 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 62% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.05% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 62% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 64.7%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• momentum, economy, trump, indicators
• President Trump is doing an awesome job and the markets recognize it! Prime Minister Trudeau is holding Canada up with a second leadership win, thank you Canadians! Mexico signed the agreement for North American trade, positive news!
• Short week and Santa rally
• Year end movement
• traditional light trade and up week
• wave 5 continues
• bullish
• The S&P continues upward due to decent earnings, the Fed expanding the balance sheet, and GDP at +2.1% (not bad). S&P is near the top Bollinger Band, so looking for sideways to upward movement this week.
• tariff resolution/holidays
• EOM vs. EOY seasonal effects
• Best six months of year historically
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Low volume
• Holidays
• Short week
• Shorter week
• Tax loss selling and profit taking will dominate the trading this week.
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Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show and/or which experts would you like to see on the show who haven’t been guests yet? (The CFN show is off for 2 weeks, but back on Jan 6th.)
• tom sosnoff
• Talk about trading platforms, who prefers what type, what is recommended and why. Which is best for individual and institutional investors and why.
• spy moves next week
• option income
• China Trump relations.
• Macd use
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• The markets will head higher into the election US 2020 election. Trump will win in 2020 and yet again the markets will soar to new all time highs again, and again and again! Longer term, Brexit will work and after the exit. The British people will be happy will drive up markets again! China will come around and deal a better deal for their own growth potential. Hello 2020 here we come!!
• Warlike circumstances in Asia.
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Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #250
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 6th, 2020
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– TBA
Analyze Your Trade Episode #107
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Thursday, January 2nd, 2020
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Synergy Traders Event #9
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Thursday, January 11th, 2020
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– TBA
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