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Crowd Forecast News Report #329

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport011220.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (January 13th to 17th)?

Higher: 42.3%
Lower: 57.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -15.4%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 69.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.1%

Responses Submitted This Week: 27
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 33.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 65% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 65.5% predicting Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 52% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.49% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 57.7% predicting Lower with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 31 times in the previous 328 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct only 35% of the time but with an average S&P500 move of 0.47% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 65% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 62.7%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• well — wave 5 still continues
• Seems to be general direction.
• Earnings and nobody fears the markets overseas
• Historically best six months of year
• 1/15 U.S. and China are signing the Phase I agreement.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Re-bound from good week
• Index taking a rest maybe needs to go sideways for a while
• long overdue
• The S&P has been at the upper Bollinger band the most recent 2 days. Looking for a pullback to the 50 day moving avg at 3220 or below.
• Too many stocks topping out
• Profit-taking in front of earnings season.
• slowing economy
• Market reached a short term peak last thursday. Earnings likely to be weaker than expected

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Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?

• Great Question.
• Notebook
• p/l
• New worth
• I keep track of which trades yield positive results and which negative. Then I can gravitate to the more successful types of trades, and avoid the others.
• Quarterly review
• watching growth of management teams

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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Join us for this week’s shows:

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Crowd Forecast News Episode #251
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, January 13th, 2020
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

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Analyze Your Trade Episode #109
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, January 14th, 2020
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Harry Boxer of TheTechTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

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Synergy Traders Event #10
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Friday-Saturday, Jan 31st-Feb 1st, 2020
– 10AM-3PM ET (both days)

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA

Click here to find out more!

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