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Crowd Forecast News Report #331

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport012620.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (January 27th to 31st)?

Higher: 30.8%
Lower: 69.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: -38.5%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Responses Submitted This Week: 
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 77% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 69.2% predicting Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.77% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 69.2% predicting Lower with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 13 times in the previous 330 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 77% of the time but with an average S&P500 move of 0.47% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 77% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.1%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• It follows the current trend.
• Large cap earnings will drive market to higher
• seasonality
• Long term trend

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Virus
• Corona virus slowing down the world for at least one quarter
• Corona Virus
• Chinese virus spread and fears. Market is due for a correction.
• That varse in Janpan
• Market has risen much more than justified based on corporate earnings. The last time that the market looked this overbought following a long leg up was in late Jan 2018; and then the market dropped hard.
• Big week for earnings disappointments. The virus continues to spread.
• Natural pullback
• Tda, tasty trade
• It’s that time of the year.
• Technical
• the China outbreak continues and will worsen
• Impeachment trail
• cause it closed deeper on Friday last week
• It’s time for a correction, if it goes lower by Friday than this week ending 24/1/20 then lower again.

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Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management?

• risk
• stops
• Stop Loss
• support / resistance
• Stop sell or buy back loss orders
• Usually about equal levels spread over several stocks.
• Trail using moving averages
• Stop loss
• I am still looking for a good trading-journal, that fits my needs…. I still did not find that. Then I need to grow a tiny account to a bigger one, which makes trade management possible. You need at least a few couple of thousand bucks to make tradde Management possibl, right? You can´t do that with a 1k-account. After reaching a mangable trade size of 2-3k then there is it makeable to hold on managemnet-rules as 1-2% max.risk per trade. For all that I still need a trading-journal to track my trades first…
• charts
• stops
• stops
• Volatility

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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Join us for this week’s shows:

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Crowd Forecast News Episode #
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday,
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA

Click here to find out more!

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Analyze Your Trade Episode #
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday,
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA

Click here to find out more!

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Synergy Traders Event #10
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Thursday, January 11th, 2020
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA

Click here to find out more!

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