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Crowd Forecast News Report #332

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport020220.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (February 3rd to 7th)?

Higher: 26.9%
Lower: 73.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -46.2%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 70.0%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 71.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -5.4%

Responses Submitted This Week: 29
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 33.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 65% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 69.2% predicting Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 77% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.67% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 73.1% predicting Lower with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 26 times in the previous 331 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct only 35% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.55% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 65% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• successfully tested weekly support
• history
• After a big loss on Friday, the powers to be will come out with some new revelation that all is better with the corona virus spread…markets will react and regain some of what was lost
• FOMC
• The slide is over this week.
• Mechanics – what goes down has to go up…

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Sentiment has turned bearish (short term)
• Corona virus takes its toll
• The china virus outbreak, january’s negative close at the year open line.
• China re-open financial market after new year’s close. China’s coronavirus has not been contained and the fear of spreading to the world is expanding.
• Coronavirus situation continues to get worse, with a long incubation period leading to uncertainty about containing it. This problem is expanding globally; and it’s too soon to think that it’s about to ease.
• Market is in downside correction. Additional Earnings reports and China to weigh on market.
• market due for another 5% decline
• Following Dow down through support
• coronavirus
• Corona virus Fear
• Well, who would have expected the developing situation involving Coronavirus but this could become the trigger for the onset of the next revession. That means either the stock markets take a sudden crash or a bear market could usher in this inevitable recession. You can never predict exactly when a recession will begin but with a capitalistic economy, you only have boom or bust periods. Capitalism has a way of being a violent economic philosophy, up or down. There is little middle ground. Until the inevitable downturn in the markets materializes, I am locked in the expectation that a downturn is coming. Fact is the markets have been acting irrational for sometime. The correction or crash is inevitable. I patiently wait.
• The needs been stampede awaiting a bottom chart formation / Market pullback to continue until CAPITULATION
• Based on S&P Global Market Intelligence
• January ended up down for the month because of Coronavirus and it will just get worse as the disease spreads.
• Short term trend
• Definitly the corona virus, threating global growth.

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Question #4. What methods or techniques do you use to overcome the emotional aspects of trading?

• stops and MAs
• Chart analysis
• don’t watch news
• experience
• Check my rules
• Try to put the situation into perspective by viewing long term charts.
• I sell early.
• Moving Average
• Using references at specific key times of the day, pivot/ key numbers and price action & limit the time in front of the PC screen.
• Hedge all the positions
• NEED ONE
• technical signals
• CUSIP Number Treasury Auction Results
• patience
• Exersize walking
• i don’t have one…I wish I knew…I am looking for advice
• Placing a hard Stop
• a 100% rules based decisions.

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Steuerliches Identifikationsnummer nach Ziffer 139b Abgabenordnung
• I´m not exactly confident on my market course, it could definitly go sideways or slightly hier. But friday´s close was definitly very significant to be bought.

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Join us for this week’s shows:

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Crowd Forecast News Episode #253
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time: Monday, February 3rd, 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com

Click here to find out more!

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Analyze Your Trade Episode #112
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time: Tuesday, February 4th, 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Lineup for this Episode:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

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