Crowd Forecast News Report #338

AD: 3 points your strategy must check

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport031520.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (March 16th to 20th)?

Higher: 33.3%
Lower: 66.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -33.3%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 68.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.4%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.6%

Responses Submitted This Week: 35
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 32.1

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 54% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 63.3% predicting Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 55% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 5.34% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 66.7% predicting Lower with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 48 times in the previous 337 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 46% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.13% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 54% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


AD: 3 points your strategy must check

Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 64.7%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• We are now down pretty far.
• Bounce !!
• stability
• Market is due for a rebound.
• Charts
• Interest Rate Cut
• dead cat bounce

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Could go either way here Big money flowed back into the Market Friday and thats building a bottom
• anything can happen now but don’t care big money flowed right back into the market on Friday why/ because Thursday was capitulation
• Business shut down. Reduce commerce, adversity not totally accounted for.
• Corona fall will continue
• companies are shutting down with the virus
• greater outbreak of coronavirus
• Friday’s late rally is making things look rosy for the S&P for now, but it’s probably counter-trend. Fed actions won’t slow the virus or provide test kits. Possibly dismal corporate earnings reports next month are not priced in to this market.
• China Flue, its effects and residual impacts. I believe given the fact where we are and what were faced with, we will trend lower and move sideways in general terms, consolidation. This is true, and really depends on if people self isolate until this passes, partially in all effected countries. This I believe will transpire as we come to the realization we have to put on our “big boy pants” and save the market, these small, medium and large cap companies require our support. What do I mean by this, we must stop shorting everything and help these companies. Yes, the market may drift lower, however its up to us traders to “float the boat”. What was interesting is these bio-tech companies who want to test people for the china flue or other companies R&D creating vaccinations everyone pulled out on later in the week. Why?? Reverse the thought process and we will help these companies. Like the United States President Mr. Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mr. Justin Trudeau and other leaders are doing with the financial packages to help, we as traders must do our part as well. STOP SHORTING and help stabilize the markets!!
• Corona virus is still growing in the US
• Margin calls will cause more selling, the Fed actions will not be strong enough to overcome the markets’ skepticism.
• Not sure how anyone could be going LONG at this point … just too much unknown unknowns out there. Once there is containment, or a vaccine, or travel bans lifted why would anyone be going LONG?
• There is no support right now to hold it
• Expect 1 – 2 days higher before turning lower for the week. This is a bear trend, so any positive movement is only going to be a retracement.
• Continuation of Virus driven trend
• there are more bad news to come and more next next week option exp on Fri.
• The virus is killing this market and the Federal Government is not helping
• Marriot emailed me that it is a world epidemic
• Fear is still in the markets


AD: 3 points your strategy must check

Question #4. What trading software/platform(s) do you use to execute your trades?

• none TD has no longer offered me a trading platform I’m not going to stay with the brokerages that charge commission much longer
• Fidelity
• none TD withdrew the platform that was my last one and it was years ago
• Td Ameritrade
• Schwab, TD Ameritrade
• Fidessa and IB
• Charles Schwab
• thinkorswim,tastytrade
• TOS
• E-Trade
• TC 2000, Think & Swim, ITRADE and RBC Direct Investing.
• TOS
• TradeStation
• Interactive Broker
• NinjaTrader 8.
• I have special software
• ToS
• Spreadbet/CFD
• Think or Swim
• TOS


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• we are living through history
• I certainly appreciate the opportunity to express my thoughts on the subject matter, thank you. I do not Facebook,. Twitter, etc., however I am grateful to all those who created this platform where I can express my thoughts from time to time. I do appreciate anyone who has ever traded stocks as we all learn from each other, thank you again.
• Sell on rebounds


Join us for these events:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #256
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, March 16th, 2020
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Jim the Option Professor of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #118
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, March 17th, 2020
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Mike Pisani of SmartOptionTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Synergy Traders Event #12

Date and Time:
– Thursday-Friday, April 2nd-3rd, 2020
– Times TBA

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA

Click here to find out more!


AD: 3 points your strategy must check

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