Crowd Forecast News Report #351

AD: Pay attention to these 2020 trade ideas!

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport061520.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (June 15th-19th)?

Higher: 38.9%
Lower: 61.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -22.2%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 66.1%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 60.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -10.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 18
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 29.6

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 52.9% predicting Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 4.96% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 61.1% predicting Lower but with a much greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 77 times in the previous 350 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 43% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.33% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 57% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


AD: Pay attention to these 2020 trade ideas!

Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 36.4%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• FED wull keep flooding the market with liquidity
• Being contrarian
• Bounce back from Thursday
• LT Trend/bounce
• High liquidity, people isbuying on the dip.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Overbought for weeks. Too far too fast.
• The market is very high based on fundamentals and in lieu of the increasing virus threat
• A pull back is due as the recent rally has run out o steam
• The daily trend will change next week per moving averages.
• An island reversal (up-gap, then 4 days later, a down-gap) occurred over the last several days. That’s generally bearish. Also, the virus wants to hang around, which dims hopes for economic recovery this year.
• I belive in megafone pattern(weekly chart). Price going to pivot (down)
• Technical
• the US facing Two big problems now a days Corona and protests,the first time i have seen low confident level in the president Mr Trump,these could led market to negative side..
• We are in a depression


AD: Pay attention to these 2020 trade ideas!

Question #4. What trading software/platform(s) do you use to execute your trades?

• Schwab streetssmart
• Fidessa, IB
• online broker has its own I don’t trade frequently
• Schwab
• Etrade
• E-Trade
• Trade station
• Tradestation
• MT4
• ava trade
• Td


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Very volatile markets are likely to continue
• this is my first time entry on your website


AD: Pay attention to these 2020 trade ideas!

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