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Crowd Forecast News Report #352

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport062220.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (June 22nd-26th)?

Higher: 56.3%
Lower: 43.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: 12.5%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 71.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 75.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 17
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 29.4

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 61.1% predicting Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 3.47% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 56.3% predicting Higher but with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 72 times in the previous 351 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 56% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.01% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 56% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.7%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 27.3%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• I am not so sure about it.
• Things are picking up in many states
• Because SPY broke 20 day MA. So my contrarian theory is it bounces back above.
• the trend continues

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Will be big drop (third wave by Fibonacci)
• Lower because the number of virus cases are increasing and Apple has shut stores down in some locations.
• We are in a depression
• The Covid-19 virus is alive and happy, as the contagion level is rising sharply in some areas. That’s going to discourage a lot of people from spending at a level that supports economic growth.
• 2nd wave of Covid19 plus the uneasyness of the mkt with regard to upcoming earnings.

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Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?

• p&l
• P/L
• Measure equity in time
• just watch the market where it headed?
• Extensive spreadsheets and monthly summaries

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Need more information about candle stick? When to time the market movements.

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