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Crowd Forecast News Report #364

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport091420.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 35.7%
Lower: 64.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -28.6%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 68.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 60.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 72.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: -12.8%

Responses Submitted This Week: 15

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• The S&P is just above it’s lower Bollinger band; and has been staying above this lower band for months. So, a rise is more likely.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• This market is losing money because the election is soon to arrive after that there will be nothing to hold this market up
• still correcting
• By day chart price going to 200 SMA.
• The uptrend has been broken
• R on Daily
• Increase in Corporate debit & Vaccine delay

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Question #4. What is the best advice you’ve seen on the topic of Trading Psychology?

• set stops
• Have a plan
• Reduce trading time to a minimum and to stay as fresh as possible.
• Keep your emotions in check while trading, as they tend to lead one to make unfortunate moves.
• Only trade with an edge
• Trader should be ready to manage RISK only not an outcome.
• Don’t stress

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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