Crowd Forecast News Report #320
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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111019.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 11th to November 15th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 46.4%
Lower: 53.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.1%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.2%
Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 35.2
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 62% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 71.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.46% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 53.6% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 21 times in the previous 319 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 38% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.14% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 62% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 65.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 64.3%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 67.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• trend
• Toppy, Market tippy FEd d0ne l00sening
• Chart and seasonality
• TARIFFS
• Option Expirations Week
• The market is melting up because of FOMO and many companies reporting better than expected earnings and forward guidance. I also think we’ll continue to melt up thru the end of the year with 3300 S&P in sight.
• The trend continues
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• The market may have a resistance
• Reversion to the mean of the trend
• China, Iran, Fed
• momentum is starting to roll over. Earnings reports are slowing down.
• Overbought, overvalued, low volumes, and reduced momentum.
• WE AR 5+% ABOVE 50DMA ==usually an area to be cautious of drop or pullback
• We all know it will only be up as long as trump keeps playing his china story. I still think it must go down and lower than this week
• Because of impeachment hearings
• No reason – that’s why my confidence is only 50%. More specifically – there are SO many fundamental as well as technical reasons – but none of those reasons have stopped the uptrend yet.
• Momentum from last week to be reversed.
• The S&P has reached its top trend line and Bollinger band top. It may move up a bit, but heavy resistance at 3100; so downward it should go.
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Question #4. Which trading platforms or brokers do you like the best for executing your trades?
• Tradestation
• Interactive Brokers Pro
• Ninja.
• TD Ameritrade
• I use Fidessa and ADMIS(UK)
• tda,tastyworks
• schwab
• Interactive Brokers
• E-Trade
• Schwab. TD Ameritrade
• TradeStation
• None I want to ✔ Lightspeed
• I do not know
• ThinkorSwim for options – Ninjatrader for futures.
• TD Ameritrade
• I like e*trade
• I’ld like to know
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Useless equity markets totally manipulated with flood of free money that was never printed nor has any value.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #245
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, November 11th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Sam Bourgi of TradingGods.net
– Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #102
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 12th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Steven Brooks of StevenBrooks.co
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
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