Week 118 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 57% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and everyone’s comments evaluating trade results over time.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator: 57% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was “Higher,” and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% chance Higher. The S&P500 ended down 2.52% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is “Higher” with a greater than 20% difference in the guesses, but there is a much higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 21 times since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct 57% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.20% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is predicting that sentiment is probably CORRECT and a 57% chance of the S&P500 going UP this week.
Click here to download TRReport122715.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!
Date and Time:
– Monday , December 28th, 2015
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Gary Dean of SentimentTiming.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– AJ Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
Moderator:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com
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