Week 136 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 64% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out what indicator influences everyone’s trading the most.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended dwon 1.15% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Lower (greater than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed only 25 times in the last 136 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 36% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of up 0.26% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 64% Chance Higher for the week.
Click here to download TRReport050116.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Date and Time:
– Monday, May 2nd, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
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– Sang Lucci of SangLucci.com
– Sam Bourgi of TradingGods.net
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– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com
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