Week 137 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 52% Chance Lower

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out what asset type everyone thinks is the easiest to trade profitably.

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 52% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 64% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended down 0.49% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Higher (greater than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 27 times in the last 137 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 48% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of down 0.50% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 52% Chance Lower for the week.

Click here to download TRReport050816.pdf

You can download all past reports here.

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No web show this week but we’ll be back on May 16th!

Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!

Date and Time:
– Monday, May 16th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– James Ramelli of AlphaShark.com
– Cameron Yost of TradingWorks.info

Moderator:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com

Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!