Weekly Report #149 – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 63% Chance Lower
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.
Click here to download the report: TRReport073116.pdf
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 63% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Higher, but the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 55% Chance Lower; the S&P500 ended down 0.01% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Lower (less than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bullish side (less than 10% difference). Similar conditions have been observed 8 times in the previous 148 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 63% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of down 0.16% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 63% Chance Lower for the week.
You can download all past reports here.
Presentation:
TimingResearch.com Web Show – Episode 97 (Report #149)
Date and Time:
– Monday, August 1st, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Description:
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Guests:
– Alan Knuckman of BullsEyeOption.com
– Jason Alan Jankovsky of TheLionOnline.com
– James Ramelli of AlphaShark.com
– Sam Bourgi of TradingGods.net
Moderator:
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com
Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!