Weekly Report #151 – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 53% Chance Lower
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.
Click here to download the report: TRReport081416.pdf
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 53% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Higher, but the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 56% Chance Lower; the S&P500 ended up 0.01% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Lower (greater than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 15 times in the previous 150 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 47% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of up 0.34% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 53% Chance Lower for the week.
You can download all past reports here.
Presentation:
TimingResearch.com Web Show – Episode 99 (Report #151)
Date and Time:
– Monday, August 15th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Description:
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Guests:
– Tom Essaye of SevensReport.com
– Adam Johnson of BullseyeBrief.com
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– Corey Rosenbloom of AfraidToTrade.com
Moderator:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com
Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!