Crowd Forecast News Report #270
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport112518.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 26th to 30th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 51.3%
Lower: 48.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.6%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 64.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 60.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -9.5%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 45.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 69% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 58.5% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 64% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 3.60% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.3% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 13 times in the previous 269 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 69% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.28% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 69% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Oil dropping is what some people like maybe
• Market Oversold
• toenadererig met china begin december
• Positive trade talks with China
• Oversold, Advance decline line, Accumulation distribution, COT index
• W shape
• over sold bounce
• dead cat bounce
• history
• oversold buy
• Oil stocks should get a deda cat bounce taking the S&P up
• Beginning of Santa Clause rally.
• Short term rally based on stochastics.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Last week’s selloffs
• Market has been down trend for last three weeks and volitity high
• The index will probably test the February low 1530
• general feelings are negative
• Chart pattern in progress Tech sector will continue to see lower revised price targets
• rate of change growth metrics
• below the 200dma
• The downside correction continues until the public says “Just get me out”.
• The S&P tanked badly on Thanksgiving week (generally a plus week), and the FAANGS and financials show no desire to reverse up. The recent bounce pattern is that bounces are being sold.
• Trade concerns with China & G`20 meeting. Border confrontation
• year end selling, tax reasons also
Partner Offer:
You Need This Woman In Your Life: The best part about Petra is not only can she locate and lock in reliable profits, she prides herself on eliminating risk and providing unparalleled educational services for her clients (learn more here).
Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?
• Covered Calls and Vertical Spreads
• monitor S&P very closely
• Puts
• went to cash
• Using options to hedge long term and core positions.
• buy the SQQQ——SH—–VXX CALLS—-SDS—SDOW—–Combination of these 5-10% of portfolio, 30% cash ,
• stop loss orders
• Covered calls
• Buy puts to hedge..
• Go preferred stocks etfs cefs
• However, I do not make any hedge.
• I close postns as my stops get hit
• VIXY
• cash optionality
• SDS Bull call spread out 2 weeks
• Short term put options on long positions
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• why are these newsetters telling us to buy and they the large investors, institutions, hedge funds are selling?
• keep up the good work.
• Looking forward to the webinar
• add inflation expectations
• Any credence to Raj call for 11/26 to be a swing low?
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #205
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, November 26th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #57
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 27th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com (first time guest!)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Partner Offer:
You Need This Woman In Your Life: The best part about Petra is not only can she locate and lock in reliable profits, she prides herself on eliminating risk and providing unparalleled educational services for her clients (learn more here).