Crowd Forecast News Report #273
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport121618.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 17th to 21st)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 53.1%
Lower: 46.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 6.3%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.4%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.1%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 34
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 44.4
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 59.5% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 71% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 1.17% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 53.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 29 times in the previous 272 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 55% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.16% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 55% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Santa Rally
• sentiment
• Counter-trend rally due to”Santa Claus” seasonal effect
• Santa Claus rally
• still buying
• oversold large short positions will be squeezed, SC rally
• Various factors including Fed and opex
• Oversold
• Last weeks high and low will be the range. I expect a bit lower on the first day or two and then a slow rise higher.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Global uncertainty abounds with Brexit, French unrest, China’s faltering economy, etc.
• Elliott wave pattern suggests the selling may intensify as the “point of recognition ” takes hold.
• Bears are in control. Positive news has negative reaction. Decent earnings reports are not well received. Rising interest rates.
• below the 20,50,200 ma,slong tza—
• The downside correction is intensifying. The move will not be over under the public says “Just let me out”.
• The weekly chart has the S&P well above its 200-week moving average. The S&P hit this in early 2016; and figures to fall to it again in the coming months. Mutual funds have low levels of cash available for buying.
• Told ya so since August
• support broken
• major support broken
• 50dma about to death cross 200dma?
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Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?
• Closed my positions today and am in cash.
• Rebalancing switch to defensive preferred shares
• Dynamic stops
• stop losses
• No hedging, straightforward trading. Sink or swim.
• Stop Loss Orders
• Long spy puts and spreads
• Using options to assist in controlling risk exposure in core positions.
• long tza—-30%-cash to 50% cash
• puts
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Want to trade – not just remain in cash – but want to make a plan – so currently in very limited positions.
• All RSI’s are dropping at this time – month, week, Day, H4, H1. It will be news driven this week.
• If it looks like a bear & growls like a bear…..
• need to see a reversal candle and then 3-higher hi-s and higher lo,s to re-enter long on the 1yr daily chart
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #208
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, October 17th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #60
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, December 18th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!