Crowd Forecast News Report #317
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport102019.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 21st to 25th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 55.0%
Lower: 45.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 10.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 63.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 57.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -13.3%
Responses Submitted This Week: 22
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 35.8
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 63.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 61% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.73% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 55% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 24 times in the previous 316 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 58% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.28% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
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Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
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