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Crowd Forecast News Report #361

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport082420.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 75.0%
Lower: 25.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 50.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 70.0%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 15
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 26.4

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 66.7% predicting Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 65% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.50% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 75.0% predicting Higher and with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 36 times in the previous 360 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 58% of the time but with an average S&P500 move of 0.04% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.1%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Low confidence due to divergence in rates of change with SPY, IWM, QQQ Positive 40B monthly into Treasuries Positive COT Commercials buying Eminis and have been so for some time
Negative Very high sentiment by Small Trader. Usually small trader is wrong short term
• End of the month trading, more news is going to be released that will bump the markets higher
• The 20 and 50 MAE keep going up away from 200 MAE
• Irrational exuberance
• The bull is running until the election
• Trend
• Luquidity. News. Momentum.
• Optimism. Enthusiasm of APPL and TSLA stock split. Last week of August and lots of money needs to be invested in the market since interest rate is so low.
• The trend continues

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Lower Breath and negative volume
• The S&P appears to have stalled near the 3400 area. Also the latest leg of the advance is now long enough where a trace back is to be expected.

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Question #4. What topic(s) would you most like to learn about related to trading or investing?

• currency exchange
• forecasting
• Psychology
• How to trade futures and how to use TOS tool for futures trading.
• Vix. Commodities.
• How find stocks with high momentum.

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• I don’t pay attention to the COVID madness. I do not believe the commercials for the most part do either.

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