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Crowd Forecast News Report #272
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport120918.pdf
Question #Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 10th to 14th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 40.5%
Lower: 59.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -19.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.7%
Responses Submitted This Week: 44
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 44.6
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 71% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 73.7% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 5.64% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 59.5% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 17 times in the previous 271 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 71% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.21% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 71% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• gut feeling
• Double bottom established in technical chart
• Oversold on the week and at support level.
• Holidays
• Proparity
• Oversold Bounce
• Markets have fallen to near-term support
• oversold buy
• Fed to the rescue.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• people will give up
• Futures are lower and indicators are lower. Plus trade issues
• Down trend
• the arrest of Huawei CFO and 3 months of mostly negative talks
• earnings and unemployment metrics
• general impression from chart review session.
• still below 200ma lower lo,s lower hi-s
• continued bad economic news
• I have created a MTF RSIxxx that shows the DAY has just rolled over with the H4 short, H1 short, M15 short. Yes, we will get some short-term pull back, but then further down we will go….
• The downside correction will continue until the public says “Just Get me Out”.
• GDP growth in 2019 is expected to decrease to 2.5%, maybe lower. Federal balance sheet being reduced. Tariffs still a drag. None of this is positive for the S&P.
• There will be no China deal in 2018. The interest rate hike is pretty certain.
• This week’s drop
• we are going down!
• people arre fearful with what the media is saying about the President and the creating divison
• That just seems to be the trend these days. Lower.
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Question #4. What indicator influences your trading the most?
• Bollinger band analysis
• technicals
• VIX–
• Liquidity
• The Fed
• trend – Mov avgs
• CCI trend
• Custom indicators I have created
• Bollinger bands, MACD.
• 200ma
• RSI for short-term moves
• Moving Averages
• sentiment
• price and volume
• Stochastic
• elliott wave theory
• RSI
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• people will blame everything. but it’s just over valuation and expectation of decreased profits and the Silicon valley execs gone insane
• Anyone who chooses 100% sure cannot be correct. It only takes 1 future event to make the ship change course.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #207
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, December 10th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Damon Pavlatos of FuturePathTrading.com
– Glenn Thompson of PacificTradingAcademy.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #59
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, December 11th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com (moderator)
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Analyze Your Trade Episode #58
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
6:40 – BAC
13:40 – CMG
19:40 – NVDA
28:30 – TLRY
34:40 – LL
40:40 – DEO
46:50 – QQQ
54:20 – BA
1:02:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Christian: Ger your first month of Elite Trader Package for $7.99
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
From Michael: Free Pass to Candlelight Trading Trade Room
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT120418
Crowd Forecast News Episode #206
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Sean Kozak of NeuroStreet.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
12:00 – Questions #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
30:50 – Question #3; Why?
39:20 – What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
52:10 – Trade ideas and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Sean: “We Create Winning Traders!” Sign Up for Free Trade Room Guest Pass
From Rob: InvestiQuant’s IQ Swing Navigator is one of the most valuable, daily market briefings you can get.
From Neil: Enter Your Email for The Best ETF To Hold For the Next 10 Years Already up +20.41% in 2018
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN120318
Crowd Forecast News Report #271
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport120218.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 3rd to 7th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 73.7%
Lower: 26.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 47.4%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 67.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.8%
Responses Submitted This Week: 40
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 44.8
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.3% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 69% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 4.16% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 73.7% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 55 times in the previous 270 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 58% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.13% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Partner Offer:
Go Full Throttle with Top Gun Options! – A Week of Trading & Training December 3-6
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Deal with China
• Resultado of US and Chinese talos about tarde tarrifs.
• Trump’s info from Southamerica
• Continued Rally from oversold.
• g20 talks positive bias… Fed dovish
• I think there is some optimism about about a trade deal between America and China. Even a hint of a deal would cheer investors.
• es went above 2763.56-on friday close –bullish for me. however ,crude to 48 then 43-.watching CRUDE–and dollar -as catalyst to down-recession???/dollar above 97.63–could kill my bull thesis-crude to 48/43.00 kill bull…….
• AD line going up, NYSI positive
• trade news
• Holiday season optimism
• history
• Short-covering rally to occur following Pres Trump’s relaxation of Jan 1 tariffs.
• This past week had a nice reversal up from the previous down week. The tariff stuff is probably already built into the market. Looking for continuation up.
• China deal
• Bogus rally playing out market loses twenty percent in 2019
• Trump will make it seem as though the trade tariffs are being eased, and the fed has softened their stance. Also money managers need to make a good showing by year end and will be pushing the mono sticks higher.
• Satna Rally
• Continued rally to Xmas
• Stochastics rise a couple more days then ?
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• I answered lower. Yes, there could be a Santa Clause rally at this time? What I see is QQQ, IWM and SPY are all below the cloud on an ichimoku daily chart. All three are below or just touching the long-term M/A. All of my trend following indicators are pointing down. So there you have it, could continue higher for a while but I am expecting lower.
• Overbought market
• Trump/Xi negative outcome
• decreasing profit trend
• overbought short term
• It]s not so much that I believe markets will be lower next week as it is that I believe that once investors begin to realize the economy in general is really beginning to weaken and reverse course that market indexes begin seriously dropping. It begin next week or not but it is going to happen and sooner rather than much later. So I’m not predicting what will happen next week, necessarily. As the economy slows significantly, then the current spats of “irrational exuberence” will cease to occur as reality sets in.
• christmas / China
• Higher volatility happens in bear markets. Sudden large upmoves is what keeps hopeful bulls in the market even as it overall goes lower (ie in spite of the occasional large upmoves).
Partner Offer:
Go Full Throttle with Top Gun Options! – A Week of Trading & Training December 3-6
Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
• rate of change
• 3ema—-8ema——20ema—-167ma-multiple time frames–20yr monthly –5yr monthly-macro——-then 3month daily—-1yr daily micro–
• Watch financial news daily
• Journal and assessing other ways I could have done the trade better
• growing/shrinking bottom line
• I keep a simple spreadsheet of results, with a lot of room for notes what we could have done in a better way, mistakes and general observation how a particular stock or ETF behaves.
• Account balance
• A lot of journalling does not work for me. However sometimes there’s an important lesson learned and I’ll keep those highlighted on same page as my current trades so I’m forced to read it as a reminder. By “same page”, that’s my own list of trades entered on my own Excel spreadsheet.
• Input results of each trade into spreadsheet & study results of each trade in a post mortem review. Mark up charts of each trade & save file for future reference..
• Schwab
• financial software
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• When will this market turn down for the long tern
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #206
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, December 3rd, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Sean Kozak of NeuroStreet.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Analyze Your Trade Episode #58
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, December 4th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Partner Offer:
Go Full Throttle with Top Gun Options! – A Week of Trading & Training December 3-6
Analyze Your Trade Episode #57
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com (first time guest!)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
6:20 – MSFT
13:50 – CGC
20:30 – ADBE
26:00 – SQ
32:00 – CVX
41:10 – C
46:30 – AAPL
54:20 – Trade ideas of the week.
59:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Larry: How to Profit From Market Volatility Interactive Encore Event
From Matt: Download This Book Today To Learn How To Trade Options Profitably
From Andrew: Get News Trade Alerts Daily!
From Jerremy: Create an account today and learn how to trade the market!
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT112718
Crowd Forecast News Episode #205
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
6:20 – Questions #1 and #2; S&P500 Higher or Lower? Confidence?
19:50 – Question #3; Why?
30:20 – Question #4; What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?
42:40 – Responses to report comments section about newsletters.
54:20 – Trade ideas for the week and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
From Michael: Free Pass to Candlelight Trading Trade Room
From Norman: The Disciplined Trader Mastery Program (Free Trial)
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN112618
Crowd Forecast News Report #270
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport112518.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 26th to 30th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 51.3%
Lower: 48.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.6%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 64.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 60.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -9.5%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 45.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 69% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 58.5% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 64% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 3.60% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.3% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 13 times in the previous 269 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 69% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.28% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 69% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Partner Offer:
You Need This Woman In Your Life: The best part about Petra is not only can she locate and lock in reliable profits, she prides herself on eliminating risk and providing unparalleled educational services for her clients (learn more here).
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Oil dropping is what some people like maybe
• Market Oversold
• toenadererig met china begin december
• Positive trade talks with China
• Oversold, Advance decline line, Accumulation distribution, COT index
• W shape
• over sold bounce
• dead cat bounce
• history
• oversold buy
• Oil stocks should get a deda cat bounce taking the S&P up
• Beginning of Santa Clause rally.
• Short term rally based on stochastics.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Last week’s selloffs
• Market has been down trend for last three weeks and volitity high
• The index will probably test the February low 1530
• general feelings are negative
• Chart pattern in progress Tech sector will continue to see lower revised price targets
• rate of change growth metrics
• below the 200dma
• The downside correction continues until the public says “Just get me out”.
• The S&P tanked badly on Thanksgiving week (generally a plus week), and the FAANGS and financials show no desire to reverse up. The recent bounce pattern is that bounces are being sold.
• Trade concerns with China & G`20 meeting. Border confrontation
• year end selling, tax reasons also
Partner Offer:
You Need This Woman In Your Life: The best part about Petra is not only can she locate and lock in reliable profits, she prides herself on eliminating risk and providing unparalleled educational services for her clients (learn more here).
Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?
• Covered Calls and Vertical Spreads
• monitor S&P very closely
• Puts
• went to cash
• Using options to hedge long term and core positions.
• buy the SQQQ——SH—–VXX CALLS—-SDS—SDOW—–Combination of these 5-10% of portfolio, 30% cash ,
• stop loss orders
• Covered calls
• Buy puts to hedge..
• Go preferred stocks etfs cefs
• However, I do not make any hedge.
• I close postns as my stops get hit
• VIXY
• cash optionality
• SDS Bull call spread out 2 weeks
• Short term put options on long positions
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• why are these newsetters telling us to buy and they the large investors, institutions, hedge funds are selling?
• keep up the good work.
• Looking forward to the webinar
• add inflation expectations
• Any credence to Raj call for 11/26 to be a swing low?
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #205
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, November 26th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #57
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 27th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com (first time guest!)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Partner Offer:
You Need This Woman In Your Life: The best part about Petra is not only can she locate and lock in reliable profits, she prides herself on eliminating risk and providing unparalleled educational services for her clients (learn more here).
Analyze Your Trade Episode #56
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
3:50 – CME
9:00 – X
13:10 – VXX
16:30 – FB
22:10 – GS
29:00 – PANW
33:30 – COST
39:30 – SEDG
41:00 – TLRY
43:00 – KEM
46:00 – TAL
50:10 – QQQ
53:30 – ISRG
56:10 – GOOG
1:00:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
From Neil: Enter Your Email for The Best ETF To Hold For the Next 10 Years Already up +20.41% in 2018
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
Other Partner Offer:
The Alpha Fibonacci Method works on any instrument, any time frame, and any platform with ultimate accuracy at trend inception and trend reversals.
You’ll see how on this online training.
AYT112018
Crowd Forecast News Episode #204
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– John Hoagland of TopstepTrader.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
8:40 – Question #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
16:40 – Question #3; Why?
29:00 – Which broker/platform is your favorite?
33:40 – Trade ideas of the week.
49:30 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From John: Do you need more capital to trade? Get funded in as little as 15 days, click here.
From Larry: How to Profit From Market Volatility Interactive Encore Event
From Michael: Free Pass to Candlelight Trading Trade Room
From Simon: Build A Profitable Trading Strategy In 15 Mins
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CFN111918
Crowd Forecast News Report #269
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111818.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 19th to 23rd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 58.5%
Lower: 41.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 17.1%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 62.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 65.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 57.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: 8.0%
Responses Submitted This Week: 42
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 45.2
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 75% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.36% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 58.5% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 25 times in the previous 268 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 64% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.33% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 64% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Gaps in technical charts of Dow, S&P and Nasdaq were filled on last Thursday. On economic fundamentals, US market should resume uptrend. Correction flushed out the froths. Market is very healthy now.
• Watching the chart and intuition
• The market is ripe for a rebound
• Sazonality
• Holidays
• Gut
• seasonal tendencies
• Thanksgiving week is usually an up week. The market held okay on Thurs & Fri, so some short-term upside is plausible.
• Best six months historically
• support
• higher low[week 11/2 compare to May ,April weeks]
• holiday seasonality
• pull back in an uptrend after the recent sell off low
• seasonality
• We need some sort of double top before the real bear market hits us.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• the COD are never right .
• I think we have passed a support level which is now resistance
• A trend has started.
• most traders off for the holiday week
• The downside correction will continue until the public says “just let me out”. Retail earnings and expectations should be a drag on the market.
• sellers in control
• Market seems range bound. Interest rate concerns.
• Market upswing runs out
• momentum weak
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Question #4. Which trading platform or broker do you like the best for executing your trades?
• thinkorswim
• Fidelity and TOS
• Trade Station
• Tradestation
• Using Charles Schwab now. Not entirely satisfied.
• Tradestation, Interactive brokers
• Tasty trade
• Interactive Brokers
• E-Trade
• ninja
• Sogo
• Ally.
• Fidessa my broker is ADM(UK)
• Tradestation
• TradeStation
• AMP – Ninja
• AMP and Sierra Charts
• ninja trader
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• I like that third party indications created for Think or Swim are better than when created for Tradestation
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #204
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, November 19th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– John Hoagland of TopstepTrader.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #56
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 20th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Partner Offer:
Did you ever think that becoming a professional trader is out of reach? Think again.
Click here to learn how.
TopstepTrader has funded more than 1,800 traders just like you with live trading capital. They take all the risk.
You keep the first $5,000 in profits and 80% thereafter.