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Crowd Forecast News Report #261
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092318.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 24th to September 28th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 40.6%
Lower: 59.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: -18.8%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 62.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 61.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.8%
Responses Submitted This Week: 34
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 47.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.89% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 59.4% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 47 times in the previous 260 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 43% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.14% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 57% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Trump enthusiasm
• Bull Market., Climbing the wall of worry!
• Pre-Mid Term Election Sentiments
• Recent history.
• I really think the administration is going to do everything within their power to keep an overall positive market till mid-term elections.
• Very volatile week. Low and then high. End of next week may slide down.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Tariffs War
• tariffs
• After making new all time highs the markets are set up for profit taking to finish the quarter.
• yes
• Trade discussion breakdown with China Very poor breadth as markets have been heading up Small caps leading down
• the Fed raises interest rates
• The market seemed to have a different tone on Friday and I think that will continue, at least early in the week
• Technical exhaustion ahead of both Fed meeting (rate hike) and end of quarter (lock in profits).
• The S&P has been in a rising channel since early April. It’s close to the channel top, and may decide to revisit 2900 before moving higher again.
• Rise over 3percent 10 t bill
• excess sentiment, bad breadth
Partner Offer:
Question #4. Which indicator influences your trading the most?
• White candlestick are still there on the S&P 500 occasionally maybe a few intraday
• Moving averages
• RSI
• Seasonality
• no
• VIX New high / New Lows
• Bollinger band, with assistance from volume, MACD
• MACD
• Fibonacci ratios, Stochastic, and Elliott Wave
• Price
• 200ma
• Price
• Elliott Wave
• Past history.
• RSI
• Macd
• Stock price increases with much higher volume than normal.
• macd
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• This is a great service! Thank you for providing it.
• yes
• The tech has been weak during September. Should we expect it to recover and strengthen in October?
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #197
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 24th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
– Lee Harris of EmojiTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #50
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 25th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
Partner Offer:
Analyze Your Trade Episode #49
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
– Oliver Schmalholz of NewsQuantified.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
4:00 – JD
10:50 – T
13:30 – MSFT
16:30 – TLRY
21:40 – AMD
27:30 – PGTI
31:20 – Trade ideas of the week.
37:50 – CVX
42:10 – CLF
45:40 – IBM
50:40 – NVDA
56:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Oliver: How To Scientifically Predict Stock Moves So That You Can Churn Out Cash From The Stock Market
From Mike: Follow @OptionsMike on Twitter.
From Jim: Episode #9: OptionProfessor Weekly Update
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
AYT091818
Crowd Forecast News Episode #196
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Adrienne Toghraie of TradingOnTarget.com (first time guest!)
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
– Jody Samuels of FXTradersEdge.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
8:30 – Question #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
13:00 – Question #3; Why?
24:20 – Question #4; What are the most important mental and emotional characteristics for traders to develop?
51:30 – Trade ideas of the week.
55:50 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Adrienne: Contact her before Friday for 25% her trading courses
From John: Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
From Jody: Back to Basics Seminar with 1 Month of Our Premiere Market Analysis
From Simon: Build A Profitable Trading Strategy In 15 Mins
From Dave: $100 Reusable Promo Code-Good For All Products At DaveLandry.com
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
CFN091718
Crowd Forecast News Report #260
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport091618.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 17th to September 21st)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 51.4%
Lower: 48.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.9%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.1%
Responses Submitted This Week: 35
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 47.6
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 60% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 57.6% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 68% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.82% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 96 times in the previous 259 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 60% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.37% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 60% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Banking is stable for now maybe according to Ole Miss
• Tariffs & trade are keys to the degree & direction but the market wants to go up even when it sells off a little because of anticipated strong earnings & a strong economy in spite of hurricane aftermath. With monthly option expiration, triple witching, FED announcements, it’s like getting answers to this current chapter relieving some uncertainty. The economy is growing, the market is rising, you don’t want to miss the bus & soon we’ll have an even more divided govt which the market likes..
• Yes
• usa earnings remain robust
• history
• Going with continuation of last week’s move up. The 50-day moving avg has been offering good support.
• Friday was triple witching, with that behind us, trade talks are progressing albeit slowly, no real earnings or major news releases we should start the final climb to the end of the year. The election in November will create more distraction but the big event is not that Republicans lose control but new financially responsible ind. may breathe fresh air into the stagnant halls. Also with Canada charging to legal sells of cannabis and many more states voting to approve, things sb interesting
• more $$$ fowing back into the markets
• Trend continues
• Charts don’t look finished to upside. S&P previous all-time high is a magnet. BUT I’m only 60% confident – because all the fundamentals say it’s already way too high. Long-term the fundamentals eventually matter. Don’t they??
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Market overbought
• tariffs
• Uncertainty caused by Trump’s trade war.
• The S&P is again reaching overbought as it makes a push towards new highs. The week may start higher as new highs are achieved but without substantial reasons for the move it will likely attract major profit taking.
• trade wars
• lower since I’m long
• EW
• Seasonal downturn continues. September will be unforgiving.
• Worst six months historically
• Market topped over summer Oct selloff
Question #4. What are the most important mental and emotional characteristics for traders to develop?
• Follow your own research
• Profit to liquid asset maybe I guess
• stops and the reason for the trade? Do not lose money.
• No need to trade everyday.
• Accept that the market is the boss, is unforgiving and that your intuition is probably wrong. Accept the consequences of every trade and trade small enough that you can deal with the results. Always know why you’re making a trade, have a plan and a backup plan. Remember that a long-term trade is often a short-term trade gone wrong. Get enough education to trade effectively. If hope and prayer are parts of your strategy, stop trading and get a better job.
• patience and perseverence
• Don’t panic
• For me, it’s to take a small loss before it turns into a large loss. And then to move on. Don’t try to make the next trade make up for the previous loss. Instead, just trade your system.
• patience
• Be observant. Act on facts. Charts and news rule .
• learn how to make a decision.
• money managment
• Most importantly, don’t let emotion take hold.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Make more by trading less.
• All panelists should be on camera.
• show in table form and graphically how predictions compare to actual market performance. THIS IS A MUST!
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #196
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 17th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Adrienne Toghraie of TradingOnTarget.com (first time guest!)
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
– Jody Samuels of FXTradersEdge.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #49
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 18th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Oliver Schmalholz of NewsQuantified.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
Crowd Forecast News Episode #195
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
11:10 – Questions #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
13:50 – Question #3; Why?
40:20 – Question #4; What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
55:40 – Trade ideas for the week and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Fausto: Smart Money Exposed: Why You Need Level 3 to Beat the Best Traders
From Rob: InvestiQuant’s IQ Swing Navigator is one of the most valuable, daily market briefings you can get.
From Anka: Subscribe to Anka’s weekly videos on YouTube
From Jim: Episode #8: OptionProfessor Weekly Update
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN091018
Crowd Forecast News Report #259
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport090918.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 10th to September 14th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 42.4%
Lower: 57.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -15.2%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 61.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 57.1%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -8.1%
Responses Submitted This Week: 35
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 47.7
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 68% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 58.3% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.87% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 57.6% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 25 times in the previous 258 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 32% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.42% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 68% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Donald Trump enthusiasm
• The line on the chart says it all. The trend continues higher after a short hiatus. Inflation from jobs data now solidly will influence the equity markets and gold higher.
• up week following a down week
• Recent history.
• People returning from vacation
• momentum
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Ouverbought Market.
• tariffs
• Tariffs are inflationary and are providing a level of uncertainty that is particularly motivating the market to take profits and window dress institutional portfolios for the end of the 3rd qtr although it’s pretty early to do that now. The Fed is going raise interest rates soon and give a press conference that will be a market mover perhaps contributing to the uncertainty. Political and geopolitical hostilities are increasing adding to uncertainty in spite of good economic news otherwise.
• NASDAQ is still jittery and likely to continue down pulling the S&P and eventually the Dow with it.
• There is no reason to create new records in September
• inflation
• TrAde talk/war
• Reality will over take the status quo as the trend remains in the early stages of transitioning from bullish to bearish.
• The market strength is weakening. The September seasonal weakness is getting a grip.
• Since the high on Aug 29, the S&P has been trending down. This trend is likely to continue, especially with the Chinese tariff situation.
• September
• Now the trend is down
• momentum failing support
• It could go anywhere during this volatile season. So I’m simply not going to trade.
Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
• Annual returns compared
• past history averages
• comparison of results to goals
• I keep a journal but it’s not like a diary. More like unexpected surprises that I should be ready for next time. And new possible ideas for what-if scenarios. Because I trade options, there are lots of what-if’s.
• Acct bal.
• bank account
• increase in overall portofolio
• I keep records
• Profit and Loss Statements.
• Look at net worth
• Still the same procedure – evaluating equity over time
• credit balance
• Profit
• Performance
• When I am successful, I am like a cheetah attaching an injured lamb. When I am unsuccessful, I AM the injured lamb.
• Reviewing of and adherence to my risk management rules.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• The political left is so insecure in their beliefs that they feel the need to shut down free speech and an exchange of other ideas through violence like spoiled 2-year-olds. You don’t often see similar behavior from the right even when they are in the minority and don’t get their way. So who do you think is more likely to take away your freedom? Separately, Nike is misguided and is insulting so I will peacefully buy products from its competitors. I’ll just do that instead!
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #195
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 10th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
AYT is off this week but will be back on September 18th!
Analyze Your Trade Episode #49
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 18th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Oliver Schmalholz of NewsQuantified.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Partner Offer:
It looks like a little “fish hook” on the charts…
Whenever Jason Bond spots this weird pattern, he dips his line on the water. Most of the time, he reels in a profit.
Analyze Your Trade Episode #48
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
3:20 – BAC
7:30 – BABA
12:00 – AMZN
16:20 – CDE
21:50 – NVDA
24:40 – AAPL
29:10 – Individual trade ideas.
34:40 – TSLA
39:40 – VXX
47:00 – WYNN
56:20 – PEP
59:10 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Larry: How To Identify & Trade Breakouts Using Options
From Jim: You can get comprehensive Option education here.
From Dean: “Beyond the Noise” FREE Weekly Newsletter
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
AYT090418
Crowd Forecast News Report #258
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport090318.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Tuesday’s open to Friday’s close (September 4th to September 7th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 41.7%
Lower: 58.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -16.7%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 64.0%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 61.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.6%
Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 48.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 66.7% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 65% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.58% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 58.3% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 45 times in the previous 257 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 42% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.15% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• It will dip from tues thru thursday and rally by end of day Friday
• guess
• The market doesn’t seem to want to go lower
• New high in Aug, currently just above resistance
• Momentum and seasonality
• vacation is over
• In recent weeks, dips have been bought. Momentum is positive.
• 50% chance
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Labor day signals a sell
• High market could be a resistance line mire sells no than buying maybe I guess
• S&P peaking stchastics >80%
• Market is very ouverbought..
• tariffs
• Higher on the week but lower than Tuesday’s open because the pent up demand after a 3-day weekend should mean that Tues will open up strong especially now that Mexico is on board & Canada is soon to follow. The NFP will be OK but it’s hard to believe that it will be extraordinary. Scary Sept & Oct will retard buying but institutions will be buying back on Tuesday the issues that they sold last week. Still a bullish week but not compared to Tuesday’s open. FAANGs will continue to carry the load.
• Continued uncertainty associated with trade issues with Canada, China, Europe, Etc.
• Don’t fight the Fed
• Overbought
• Testing Support
• I think the market is peaking at new resistance and is due for a rest and some consolidation.
• It is virtually impossible to predict week to week where the S&P ends up each week. What I’m really saying with my routine “lower” and “50%” response isn’t so much what will happen tby this time next wee.. What I am saying is this market is going to turn down and that is the next important event that will inevitably occur and reset the levels at more realistic levels. I will not really bother with being right week to week as a result. I know I’ll get it right in the end.
• The market is overbought and due for a downside correction. September is usually a weak month for stock prices.
• I have certain technical; indicators that I follow and they say we are heading south – but I’m first to say this is a likelihood of happening – that’s all.
• Instability
• Current high and negativity of the Trade negotiations.
• I don’t know where the heck the market is going and therefore rated my confidence at only 50%. Everybody knows it’s “overpriced” whatever that means. Yet most seem to believe it will go up to at least 3000. And everybody has trailing stops or buys protective puts or whatever. So it seems everybody is protected even if there’s a 20% correction. But it seems nothing can stop this uptrend – unless it’s something really drastic and unexpected – maybe. I dunno.
Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show? (The show is off this coming week, but back on September 10th.)
• Entry/exit strategies
• All guests should indicate how long they have been professional advisers and what their annual results have been for the period that they have been advising. They also should indicate what makes them superior.
• Isolation of some markets
• options pricing, instead of buying stock, using options to take bull/bear position.
• Competing with algorithmic firms when trading.
• Profit
• Position Size / Money Management
• seasonality and momentum
• fundamental analysis
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• A lot of people like to say that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results and if that’s true, we have have a lot of people in this country promoting socialism who must therefore be insane.
• Will the economy be better because of a new policy o behalf of TYrump?
• Have all panelists on camera.
Join us for this week’s shows:
CFN is off this week but will be back on September 10th! AYT is still on (details below).
Crowd Forecast News Episode #195
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 10th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #48
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 4th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Partner Offer:
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Click here to learn how.
TopstepTrader has funded more than 1,800 traders just like you with live trading capital. They take all the risk. You keep the first $5,000 in profits and 80% thereafter.
Analyze Your Trade Episode #47
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
3:30 – MU
10:40 – T
15:50 – IBM
23:10 – JD
28:30 – NVDA
39:10 – IWM (and new highs discussion)
55:30 – PGTI
1:00:40 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Christian: Ger your first month of Elite Trader Package for $7.99
From Jim: You can get comprehensive Option education here.
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
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AYT0828118
Crowd Forecast News Episode #194
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Damon Pavlatos of FuturePathTrading.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
7:10 – Questions #1, #2, and #3; Higher or Lower? Confidence? Why?
39:50 – Question #4; Which trading platform or broker do you like the best for executing your
trades?
46:50 – Trade ideas of the week and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Dave: $100 Reusable Promo Code-Good For All Products At DaveLandry.com
From Mike: Follow @OptionsMike on Twitter. And Get News Trade Alerts Daily!
From Damon: Email [email protected] for a link to Damon’s next webinar
From Jim: Get the most recent episode of his new video series
From Neil: Reliable Indicators That Actually Work
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN082718