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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?
Higher: 64.3%
Lower: 35.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 28.6%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 60.0%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 59.4%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 61.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -1.6%
Responses Submitted This Week: 15
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.7%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 52.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Momentum
• too much un known
• The economic comeback
• Trend up continues
• The trend is intact
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• minor pullback then resume up until election 100 points lower
• No stimulus deal, election getting closer
• Last week’s high was on Monday; and it was approached on Friday; but then turned down toward the close. Expecting continuation of this latest down move.
• technical analysis
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Question #4. What topics related to trading or investing do you most want to learn more about?
• Economy
• Futures
• Not sure
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Which direction the economy going?
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