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Crowd Forecast News Report #275
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport123018.pdf
Scroll down for the full web version of the report.
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 31st to January 4th)?
Higher: 60.7%
Lower: 39.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 21.4%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 59.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 58.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 60.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -1.2%
Responses Submitted This Week: 30
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 43.8
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 61.0% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 83% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 3.55% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 60.7% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 27 times in the previous 274 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 56% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.07% Lower for the week (one of the rare circumstances where the market went up more frequently but the overall average move was negative for these weeks). Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 56% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.1%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Republicans majority
• best six months of the year historically
• Because the RSI and the Fast Stockastic are very low with inclinations to go up. The MACD IS ALSO with inclinacion to go UP.
• Value buyers thinking the market will try to protect against the possibility that the selling will subside somewhat before any considerable big down days again appear.
• momentum and volatility trends
• start monday higher or lower but end of week will slightly higher. hedge all trades to make money
• New Year rally
• With the market oversold, looking for a move up to the 2575-2600 range of resistance.
• Selling in the market seems to have slowed a little.
• Which direction will confuse people the most? Higher will confuse us.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Sell programs
• higher thru tuesday then drop , but not sure if it will go below this week low
• All the things that tanked the markets are still in play but it is oversold enough for some good positive days to happen until it becomes overbought and drops again.
• Govt. shutdown.
• The downside correction will continue until the public says “Just get me out”.
• trend is down and the bear rally is over
• Relief rally over(?)
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Question #4. What are you hoping to learn more about, or change, or improve related to your trading or investing in 2019?
• cut losses short
• EM
• swing trading
• Profit
• Bonds 3 percent opens plans to start a bond portfolio
• I want to receive a list of stocks to BUY and stocks to SELL when experts using a very complex computer program can decide when is the right time. I do not want to read lots of information about many companies when some one can provide me the list of stocks already found by experts.
• To get a better picture of the thinking of the big fund managers relative the the recent trading activity.
• money management ,, how to use stop loss on new platform
• Fewer trades. More smarter trades.
• Be more patient about jumping into trades.
• Get better understanding of option spreads.
• keep better records
BONUS: Where do you think the S&P500 will close for 2019 (relative to where it will close for 2018)?
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• I wish to have the right recomendations with you using the right tools to decide what to BUY and what to SELL and the right time. VECTORVEST is a program that can do it.
• keep up the informative viewpoints
The shows are off this week but join us again on January 7th!
Crowd Forecast News Episode #209
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 7th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Hoagland of TopstepTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #61
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, January 8th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Crowd Forecast News Report #274
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport122318.pdf
Scroll down for the full web version of the report.
Partner Offer:
Disciplined Trader Mastery Program: Now There’s a Simple and Easy-To-Follow System For Gaining Control of Your Mental Game and Finally Live Your Dream of Independence and Financial Security
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 24th to 28th)
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 39.0%
Lower: 61.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -22.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 62.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 71.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: -9.0%
Responses Submitted This Week: 42
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 44.2
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 83% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 53.1% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 55% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 6.72% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 61.0% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 12 times in the previous 273 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 17% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.67% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 83% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Partner Offer:
Disciplined Trader Mastery Program: Now There’s a Simple and Easy-To-Follow System For Gaining Control of Your Mental Game and Finally Live Your Dream of Independence and Financial Security
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Year end rally
• Retracement and then further down
• time for a pause in the slaughter
• We are very low now.
• Spy 240 held Build from here
• Correction to the upside. A lower low will follow in the following week.
• Dead cat bounce/santa rally
• I see it as a pullback. Getting ready for another bigger downward plunge in New Year.
• Institutions have to rebalance. Will pick up undervalued stocks going into new year.
• short term : CBOE Equity put/call ratio closed too high. longer term: fundamentals are ok. Market is concerned only because of China and uncertainty with U.S. politics.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• redemption of funds by managers closing the books and washing their slate clean investor sentiment
• Sentiment
• Tariffs, government shutdown, interest rates
• More panic selling to continue
• So many uncertainties which the market usually hates and the recent weakness shows no signs of abating
• according to the sentiment of the market the price will go to support 1800 (in about 2 months)
• Continued down trend
• It’s hard to fight the direction of the market.
• There’s no meaningful S&P support until somewhere below 2300. No Santa rally showing up. Pres. Trump must be angry at Santa, but he can’t fire him.
• I no longer believe a CRASH is going to occur and now believe we are simply in a fairly intense bear market and when this ends the market will take off again and surpass highs of the recent past, possibly breaking 30K, maybe even 40K DOW and then when the US is about the only nation that has not seen its markets crash, It will happen here, probably in the next 2 to 4 years at which point the world will go into a depression lasting at least a decade, possibly 2.
• The downside correction continues.
• Gov’t shutdown
• SPX is in bearish market and just experience the “death cross”.
• No serious buyers
• Everyone is bearish now and all bulls are being wiped out
• The Market is oversold. The companies have bought back billions of their own shares. They have shorted their own stocks with covered calls.
• support broken McClellen oscilator
• Big money never Trumpers trying to sink American economy.
Partner Offer:
Disciplined Trader Mastery Program: Now There’s a Simple and Easy-To-Follow System For Gaining Control of Your Mental Game and Finally Live Your Dream of Independence and Financial Security
Question #4a. Which of these have you traded in the last year?
Question #4b. Which software programs and/or platforms have you used to execute your trades?
(For those who responded to #4b their answers to #4a are shown below before their #4b asnwer.)
• Stocks/ETFs, Options, Futures – Streetsmart Pro 3T Futures
• Stocks/ETFs, Options – Interactivbrokers
• Stocks/ETFs – Fidelity TC2000
• Stocks/ETFs – Think or Swim
• Stocks/ETFs, Futures – TD
• Options – Schwab
• Stocks/ETFs, Options – TradeStation
• Options – thinkorswim
• Options, Futures – Interactive Brokers. Fills are awesome even though their margining is difficult.
• Futures – Ninja Trader Platform. No software only look at price.
• Stocks/ETFs, Futures – TD
• Stocks/ETFs, Options, Futures – SAXO trader
• Futures – GCI fin., X-station, MT4
• Stocks/ETFs, Futures – interactivebrokers/fidessa
• Options – TOS
• Stocks/ETFs, Options, Cryptocurrencies – Options house
• Stocks/ETFs – E-Trade
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Trade tensions, tariffs, Powell Put, too much uncertainty coming out of Washington
• What’s coming is something different, something most will not expect. A drop of epic proportions..
The shows are off for the next couple weeks but join us again on January 7th!
Crowd Forecast News Episode #209
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 7th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Hoagland of TopstepTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #61
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, January 8th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– TBA
Partner Offer:
Disciplined Trader Mastery Program: Now There’s a Simple and Easy-To-Follow System For Gaining Control of Your Mental Game and Finally Live Your Dream of Independence and Financial Security
Analyze Your Trade Episode #60
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
5:20 – TNDM
8:00 – IWM
11:40 – PYPL
15:20 – AMZN
18:50 – MCD
23:30 – PFE
27:40 – CSCO
32:40 – Individual trade ideas.
44:20 – ABBV
47:50 – Jim closing statement.
48:30 – SLB
51:50 – XPO
54:20 – AOBC
57:40 – TEVA
1:00:30 – AMD
1:02:40 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Larry: Stop Trading Alone! Test Drive Our VIP Trading Club – One Time Trial Month for Just $7
From Michael: Free Pass to Candlelight Trading Trade Room
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT121818
Crowd Forecast News Episode #208
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
7:50 – Questions #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
16:00 – Question #3; Why?
25:50 – Question #4; What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?
32:20 – Trade ideas of the week.
43:00 – Closing statements and offers.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Simon: Build A Profitable Trading Strategy In 15 Mins
From Norman: The Disciplined Trader Mastery Program (Free Trial)
From Bennett: Discover How To Earn A Seven Figure Income Trading!
From Fausto: 12 Days of Deals
From Dave: $100 Reusable Promo Code-Good For All Products At DaveLandry.com
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN121718
Crowd Forecast News Report #273
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport121618.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 17th to 21st)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 53.1%
Lower: 46.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 6.3%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.4%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.1%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 34
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 44.4
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 59.5% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 71% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 1.17% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 53.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 29 times in the previous 272 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 55% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.16% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 55% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Santa Rally
• sentiment
• Counter-trend rally due to”Santa Claus” seasonal effect
• Santa Claus rally
• still buying
• oversold large short positions will be squeezed, SC rally
• Various factors including Fed and opex
• Oversold
• Last weeks high and low will be the range. I expect a bit lower on the first day or two and then a slow rise higher.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Global uncertainty abounds with Brexit, French unrest, China’s faltering economy, etc.
• Elliott wave pattern suggests the selling may intensify as the “point of recognition ” takes hold.
• Bears are in control. Positive news has negative reaction. Decent earnings reports are not well received. Rising interest rates.
• below the 20,50,200 ma,slong tza—
• The downside correction is intensifying. The move will not be over under the public says “Just let me out”.
• The weekly chart has the S&P well above its 200-week moving average. The S&P hit this in early 2016; and figures to fall to it again in the coming months. Mutual funds have low levels of cash available for buying.
• Told ya so since August
• support broken
• major support broken
• 50dma about to death cross 200dma?
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?
• Closed my positions today and am in cash.
• Rebalancing switch to defensive preferred shares
• Dynamic stops
• stop losses
• No hedging, straightforward trading. Sink or swim.
• Stop Loss Orders
• Long spy puts and spreads
• Using options to assist in controlling risk exposure in core positions.
• long tza—-30%-cash to 50% cash
• puts
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Want to trade – not just remain in cash – but want to make a plan – so currently in very limited positions.
• All RSI’s are dropping at this time – month, week, Day, H4, H1. It will be news driven this week.
• If it looks like a bear & growls like a bear…..
• need to see a reversal candle and then 3-higher hi-s and higher lo,s to re-enter long on the 1yr daily chart
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #208
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, October 17th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #60
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, December 18th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Analyze Your Trade Episode #59
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Guest: Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
4:30 – ADC
9:20 – ELS
14:00 – GS
19:50 – GLW
23:50 – MSFT
26:50 – Jerremy’s trade idea and closing statement.
29:40 – NVDA (live viewer request)
33:00 – T
34:50 – ABX
41:50 – SMTC
44:50 – UNH
47:20 – ROKU
50:10 – NKE
53:50 – BMY
55:30 – UNG
57:40 – CRON
59:20 – Neil and Mike’s trade ideas and closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Neil: Enter Your Email for The Best ETF To Hold For the Next 10 Years Already up +20.41% in 2018
From Jerremy: Create an account today and learn how to trade the market!
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT121118
Crowd Forecast News Episode #207
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Damon Pavlatos of FuturePathTrading.com
– Glenn Thompson of PacificTradingAcademy.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
8:20 – Question #1 & #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
25:00 – Question #3; Why?
46:40 – Question #4; What indicator influences your trading the most?
1:02:00 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Glenn: Join for their free webinars
From Damon: Email [email protected] or visit FuturePathTrading.com
From Michael: Free Pass to Candlelight Trading Trade Room
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN121018
Crowd Forecast News Report #272
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport120918.pdf
Question #Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 10th to 14th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 40.5%
Lower: 59.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -19.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.7%
Responses Submitted This Week: 44
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 44.6
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 71% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 73.7% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 5.64% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 59.5% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 17 times in the previous 271 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 71% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.21% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 71% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Partner Offer:
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• gut feeling
• Double bottom established in technical chart
• Oversold on the week and at support level.
• Holidays
• Proparity
• Oversold Bounce
• Markets have fallen to near-term support
• oversold buy
• Fed to the rescue.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• people will give up
• Futures are lower and indicators are lower. Plus trade issues
• Down trend
• the arrest of Huawei CFO and 3 months of mostly negative talks
• earnings and unemployment metrics
• general impression from chart review session.
• still below 200ma lower lo,s lower hi-s
• continued bad economic news
• I have created a MTF RSIxxx that shows the DAY has just rolled over with the H4 short, H1 short, M15 short. Yes, we will get some short-term pull back, but then further down we will go….
• The downside correction will continue until the public says “Just Get me Out”.
• GDP growth in 2019 is expected to decrease to 2.5%, maybe lower. Federal balance sheet being reduced. Tariffs still a drag. None of this is positive for the S&P.
• There will be no China deal in 2018. The interest rate hike is pretty certain.
• This week’s drop
• we are going down!
• people arre fearful with what the media is saying about the President and the creating divison
• That just seems to be the trend these days. Lower.
Partner Offer:
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Question #4. What indicator influences your trading the most?
• Bollinger band analysis
• technicals
• VIX–
• Liquidity
• The Fed
• trend – Mov avgs
• CCI trend
• Custom indicators I have created
• Bollinger bands, MACD.
• 200ma
• RSI for short-term moves
• Moving Averages
• sentiment
• price and volume
• Stochastic
• elliott wave theory
• RSI
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• people will blame everything. but it’s just over valuation and expectation of decreased profits and the Silicon valley execs gone insane
• Anyone who chooses 100% sure cannot be correct. It only takes 1 future event to make the ship change course.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #207
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, December 10th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Damon Pavlatos of FuturePathTrading.com
– Glenn Thompson of PacificTradingAcademy.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #59
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, December 11th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com (moderator)
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Analyze Your Trade Episode #58
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
6:40 – BAC
13:40 – CMG
19:40 – NVDA
28:30 – TLRY
34:40 – LL
40:40 – DEO
46:50 – QQQ
54:20 – BA
1:02:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Christian: Ger your first month of Elite Trader Package for $7.99
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
From Michael: Free Pass to Candlelight Trading Trade Room
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AYT120418
Crowd Forecast News Episode #206
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Sean Kozak of NeuroStreet.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
12:00 – Questions #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
30:50 – Question #3; Why?
39:20 – What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
52:10 – Trade ideas and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Sean: “We Create Winning Traders!” Sign Up for Free Trade Room Guest Pass
From Rob: InvestiQuant’s IQ Swing Navigator is one of the most valuable, daily market briefings you can get.
From Neil: Enter Your Email for The Best ETF To Hold For the Next 10 Years Already up +20.41% in 2018
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
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