Crowd Forecast News Report #286
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport031718.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (March 18th to 22nd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 71.4%
Lower: 28.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 42.9%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 63.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 62.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.1%
Responses Submitted This Week: 46
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.9
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 59% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 38.2 Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 2.72% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 71.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 29 times in the previous 285 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 59% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.01% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 59% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Divergence in Motley is maybe interesting from price something Mrs maybe I think but Donald Trump is a popular President I saw 52 popularity maybe supporting more buying than selling now I think maybe
• Just a gut feel
• best six months of the year. go with the flow
• friday closed up
• China
• RSI is long on the day, H4 and H1
• Momentum
• it does the opposite of what I predict (lower)
• SPX break of resistance today.
• history
• The S&P closed just above the Nov 2018 high, with no signs of a reversal. The probability is for more upside.
• momentum
• Trum[p Veto, Market want Wall built
• no new bad news
• range break to the upside
• Testing highs, looking for resistance.
• Looks like second shoulder of head and shoulders pattern? Maybe higher then late week corrct…
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• over bought.
• Rally in previous week
• Post expiration position squaring
• My 401 K hit an all time high and I need AMZN to go up.
• elliott wave 5
• Market is overbought.
• transports, Russell non-confirmation
• Market t0pped weeks ago
Question #4. Which do you think is best, trading one methodology or system all the time or trading multiple strategies? Why?
• Multiple strategies, for diversification
• Multiple because of changing conditions
• one
• Trading multiple strategies could be optimal for the different market moods — such as trending, range bound, chop.
• Short term
• multiple. satisfies the take profit part of me while allowing me to run my winners
• I dk
• 1 @ adjust as mkts change
• become the house
• kiss
• Having multiple possibilities seems best. It can help to use a strategy now that works best with the current trend; and different strategies for a different market phases or diverse sectors.
• one; only one brain
• Multiple strategies but using indicators as well to guide the trade…
• one methodology
• One method, less to keep track of.
• must be flexible with changing market conditions
• One is the best, but you have to be able to adapt to the changing market, and that might require a different system, trending verses ranging.
• one methodology which works
• Multiple strategies, life is constantly evolving and revolutiions
• I like profit n the trades but I think the support line has n a popular Republican could support more buying than selling rather than a resistance line I think now but I might think more selling than buying in a resistance line is more important as I do not like any loss at all
• Let us know when you find out
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Make this a bit more competitive by having a league of the those who make the right calls more often
• anything can happen this week. I see testing the last large top soon. 09/21/2018
• If every one think the same way, you should take the oppose position
• Profit only I think
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #217
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, October 1st, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Lance Ippolito of AlphaShark.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #70
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, , 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com