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Crowd Forecast News Episode #220
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Timeline (the following links will open on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
6:30 – Questions #1-3; S&P500; Higher or Lower? Why?
17:00 – Question #4; What indicator influences your trading the most?
30:00 – Trade ideas of the week.
41:10 – Closing thoughts and statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From A.J.: 6% solution: Stop listening to the hucksters that claim you need to day trade, or take crazy risks.
From Bennett: Follow the TradersCoach Facebook Page for trade ideas and lots of great information.
From Dave: $100 Reusable Promo Code-Good For All Products At DaveLandry.com
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Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
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CFN041519
Crowd Forecast News Report #290
AD: Watch the World Premiere of Money Revealed
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport041419.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 15th to 19th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 63.9%
Lower: 36.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: 27.8%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.1%
Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.2
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 59% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 61.1% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 1.55% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 63.9% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 58 times in the previous 289 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 59% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.07% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 59% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
AD: Watch the World Premiere of Money Revealed
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• st trend
• Easter holiday week
• The trend is still our friend
• To the highest price from early October is a bit. The trend is convincingly LONG.
• Better than expected job growth.
• I recently added to my SDS long and SPY put hedges, so the market should skyrocket!
• bulls are in control
• Still best six months of the year and earnings should be ok
• More good bank earnings should help this week. Expecting the market to grind higher.
• Because earnings estimates have been reduced drastically, most companies will handily best the estimates, thus driving the S&P another leg higher.
• trend is up
• Trend plus Financials earnings
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• The China agreement will spark sellers panick
• Taxes maybe keep people busy from buying that is support maybe sometimes maybe some
• A recession is in the forecast.
• ITK
• Holiday shortened week should produce a pause for the current march to new highs allowing a small decline back towards 2880 – 2900
• Time to consolidate
• elliott wave formation
• The market is overbought and earnings season is beginning.
• lower earnings
• overbought
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Question #4. What indicator influences your trading the most?
• RSI
• the wrong ones
• MAs
• chart
• Exponential & Simple moving averages, RSI, & volume.
• DIVERGENCES
• I use 3, cci, rsi and ma
• ma200
• Keltner channels
• Economic
• Elliott Wave
• RSI
• Rsi
• Interest rates
• Price-volume action and trend channels.
• Charts and MAs.
• S&P 500 Index, Russell 2000 Index
• Elliott Wave Theory and Stochastic/Momentum Index.
• SMA or DMA (10,20,50,200)
• MACD
• The bull will flood the market with commodities to service the consumers before the summer. The bear market will appear for the bartering agreements.
• 8 MA & the IC
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• The Bitcoins have declined as negotiable instruments.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #220
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, April 15th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #73
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 16th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
ADVERTISEMENT
36 ways to get rich – watch the movie
Imagine if you just had $10-$20k per month rolling in… Just to take care of you… And you didn’t have to lift a finger to keep it flowing.
That—and more—is the reality for the wealthy because they know how to create passive income while the rest of us trade time for money.
That’s just one of the things you’ll learn about—at not cost—right here:
Crowd Forecast News Report #289
AD: 6 days + 70 world-class wealth experts = 1 fantastic event (click here).
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport040719.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 8th to 12th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 61.1%
Lower: 38.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 22.2%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 66.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.6%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 71.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.4%
Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.3
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 64.7% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 1.55% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 61.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 14 times in the previous 288 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 43% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.72% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 57% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Economic reasons maybe I think some
• For the 2nd week in a row it’s been going up. keep going up baby!!!
• Higher oil prices and the continued increase o small cap stocks.
• Historically best six months
• Broke resistance and should be testing close to the all time high .. Volume is low and there is not much conviction after breaking resistance .. So it is a 2 blade knife .. but the bias so far is still to the Upside.
• Seasonality as researched by Norman Fasback in the early 1990s back to 1927 which showed that ALL of the market’s gains occurred on the last 2 trading days of the old month and the first 10 trading days of the old month! The rest of each month netted 0! Next week has trading day #6 – #10 for April. High probability, NOT guaranteed!
• Bullish momentum
• Good news
• weak trend will continue.
• go with the trend…until it ends
• history and world situation
• The S&P continues to drive upwards (no down days last week). It looks like it’s targeting the high from last September; and I wouldn’t bet against it getting there.-
• General improvement in global economic growth.
• trend is up
• Low Interest Rates
• Trend
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Wednesday is an important astrological turndate
• Time to re-group
• because -wil hit 2900 and re-test down.
• elliott wave 4 may be beginning
• Market is overbought. Market needs to back and fill to get healthy.
• Overbought, time for a break
• The 💰 has flowed in 1 thing unexpected and the herd will stampede 0ut
• Volatile markets lower trading due to uncertainty and global economic problems.
• Chart looks like a climactic top.
AD: 6 days + 70 world-class wealth experts = 1 fantastic event (click here).
Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show? (The show is off this coming week, but back on April 15th.)
• How useful is ” Sell in May & go away ?” #2. What resources can the DIY investor use to gauge the coming of a recession and how to prepare for one ?
• Levels Up and down ..
• No preference
• No reference
• Global macroeconomic issues managing volatile market conditions
• Trading market turning points
• Topping patterns
• trading vxxb weekly options
• Money management — need to consider 3 factors – risk reward probability. But how the heck to decide on probability? What if always guestimated probability to be 50%, then how to apply money management?
• The “Holy Grail” of trading
• Simple Trading Strategy/Systems for beginers
• Small caps and international markets such as China.
• Profit
• Option deltas
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Keep up the good work
• LOL
• Keep up the good analysis !!
• what is the performance of your survey’s?
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #220
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, April 15th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #73
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 16th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
AD: 6 days + 70 world-class wealth experts = 1 fantastic event (click here).
Analyze Your Trade Episode #72
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com (first time guest!)
– Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline (links below will open on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
3:10 – NVDA
8:20 – AAPL
15:20 – LULU
22:00 – CSCO
28:00 – SPY
35:50 – BA
42:30 – GOOS
46:10 – MA
51:40 – GE
56:50 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Matt: Download This Book Today To Learn How To Trade Options Profitably
From Bryan: AlphaShark Options Trading Blog: Options Trading Tips and Strategies
From Jerremy: Create an account today and learn how to trade the market!
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT040219
Crowd Forecast News Episode #219
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com (moderator)
Timeline (links below will open on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
5:30 – Question #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
11:20 – Question #3; Why?
17:20 – Question #4. What type(s) of trading do you specialize in or focus on? How did you come to that decision?
26:10 – Trade ideas for the week.
41:00 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Mark: Modified Leguerre Oscillator (Lifetime License) $299.00 Bonus: One month live trading room.
From Simon: Build A Profitable Trading Strategy In 15 Mins
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN040119
Crowd Forecast News Report #288
AD: Get Trial Access To 3 Top Trading Services
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport033119.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 1st and 5th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 64.7%
Lower: 35.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 29.4%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 64.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 62.1%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.1%
Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.5
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 62% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 71.1% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 63% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.37% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 64.7% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 13 times in the previous 287 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 38% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.89% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 62% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
AD: Get Trial Access To 3 Top Trading Services
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• historically best six months of the year
• Economy is improving
• Trend continues
• Can’t tell for sure where we’re going from here.
• Continued retracement
• Elliott Wave 4 Buys
• Friday’s’ surge suggests the market likes the chances of the US-China trade negotiations; and doesn’t worry much about the inverted yields.
• Momentum & China Trade deal
• economy.
• There is no selling almost and keep pumping with low volume They dont want to sell
• trend is upward on Basic stocks AMT, DIS etc. Macro a little different but trying to push higher unless some terrorist event
• higher low last week
• The trend continues
• seasonal
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• I hate Trump
• S&P should rest
• cycle
• because rusesll is not keeping up with s/p-overbought -complacency-high-mrkt sideways 2-weeks-drift loweer
• S&P at upper resistance
• The market is still overbought and acting tired. Need more downside action.
• I refuse to go into any detail except to note that the writing is already on the wall. A market shake-out is coming. No one can predict with any certainty when that begins happening, but the circumstances for it’s inevitable occurrence are setting it all up. It’snot a question of IF.
• Market completing a double t0p b4 summet
• Failure of ES to stay above 2900 level.
AD: Get Trial Access To 3 Top Trading Services
Question #4. What type(s) of trading do you specialize in or focus on? How did you come to that decision?
• day trading cause it works
• Dividend
• Arbitrage of individual stocks who fall for unreasonable reasons. They generally rebound. Need tight stops though. I do it because these generally cause a sudden intense movement.
• Index options,I find it’s easier to follow and predict.
• options – elliott wave and other indicators
• Swing trading stocks. My schedule doesn’t allow for day trading; and longer term trading is too slow for me.
• selling BPS. Theta
• Options for the most part. Allows me to control large number of shares at a fraction for the share price.
• Puts and Calls hedging on stocks at earning dates or event. i have noticed strength upward bias
• Day trading as I can sleep well having closed very large positions.
• Futures
• futures
• Options
• options
• daytradingy technicals -stack moving avgs.mr
• options, less capital required
• Long term commodity etfs
• Eminis S&P because of liquidity and focus on researching on one name instead of several names like stocks.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Love you guys
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #219
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, April 1st, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #72
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com (first time guest!)
– Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
AD: Get Trial Access To 3 Top Trading Services
Analyze Your Trade Episode #71
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline (opens on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
4:10 – NFLX
7:20 – MU
10:30 – BABA
14:10 – BPTH
16:40 – GOOG
20:00 – ROKU
22:10 – NKE
26:30 – FB
30:20 – AMD
33:10 – FAS
37:10 – GLUU
40:50 – ZTS
43:20 – BAC
47:10 – Trade ideas of the week.
53:40 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Larry: How to Trade Market Swings Up or Down
From Andrew: Free eBook! Learn How to Trade Like A Full Time Trader
From Matt: Leading Full Throttle Market Briefs this week!
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT032619
Crowd Forecast News Episode #218
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Bennett: Discover How To Earn A Seven Figure Income Trading!
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN032519
Crowd Forecast News Report #287
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport032419.pdf
Full web version of the report available below the ad.
Smooth Markets Never Made a Skilled Investor
I see a lot of panicked traders and worried investors right now. And with good cause because we’re not convinced that the turbulence in the markets isn’t set to continue for a while.
But there’s one guy we know, Jeff, who looks pretty relaxed right now. You see, Jeff’s investing approach can pinpoint stocks and profit from them no matter whether the market is soaring or nose-diving.
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (March 25th to 29th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 28.9%
Lower: 71.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -42.1%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.6%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.7
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 63% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 71.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.78% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 71.1% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 16 times in the previous 286 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 63% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.19% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 63% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Technically looks like to recover from friday’s low
• More positive comments in the news.
• end of quarter window dressing by institutions
• Unknown Mueller report is now known
• Correction
• Big impulse down, moderate + pullback.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Pullback due to political/economic concerns
• technical.
• End of month rotation will cause the S & P to slide down.
• The uncertainty and noise around the completion of the Mueller invstigation
• technical analysis shows me a top has occurred
• Market will take a rest.
• below spx 2800 lower
• a reversal
• The Fed, which has lots of data to study, knows that they won’t raise rates this year, because they are confident that the economy is in a slowing phase. Also, the S&P chart looks like a triple top.
• After hitting the high of 2860 on S&P which was a known strong resistance point, the rally appears to have temporarily faded. It broke down through support at 2818, and is close to the next resistance of 2800. If it does not go up from here, we can expect the market to roll over here.
• Downside correction that started last week will continue.
• quiet period for buybacks weak internals support broken window dressing a difficult task
• Fridays drop
• It completed a reversal pattern on friday + fundamental factors like a slowing world economy.
• Engulfing at previous level of resistance.
• possible lower high on weekly chart
• The children will come in for lunch and not like what they are being served.
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Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading?
• Using options
• puts
• I sell that’s it
• Securities
• SDS options
• Stops
• Buy shunned winners.
• Buy puts.
• stops
• I used to in the past, but my timing was not correct, and I have lost money. But tomorrow I might buy some inverse SPY etf.
• I sell at mental stopped
• put spreads
• Debit spreads
• Use of multiple protective option strategies
• VXXB weekly calls -been working -atm.
• QQQ puts.
• inverse etfs
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Mueller says no more indictments and the market will head to 2900
• If I knew any thing about markets, I’d be rich, which I ain’t.
• Please discuss how much percentage you expect the pullback to be. Is it safe to say it might be about 5% from the recent high of 2860? Thanks.
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Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #218
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, March 25th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #71
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, March 26th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
ADVERTISEMENT
Smooth Markets Never Made a Skilled Investor
I see a lot of panicked traders and worried investors right now. And with good cause because we’re not convinced that the turbulence in the markets isn’t set to continue for a while.
But there’s one guy we know, Jeff, who looks pretty relaxed right now. You see, Jeff’s investing approach can pinpoint stocks and profit from them no matter whether the market is soaring or nose-diving.
Crowd Forecast News Survey #287
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Do you think that next week the S&P500 will move…
Higher or Lower? Click here to go to this week’s survey!
Please submit your response by:
6PM ET (3PM PT) on Sunday, 03/24/2019
Plus, give you opinion on this week’s new question:
What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading?
Higher or Lower? Click here to go to this week’s survey!
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There Was NO WAY He Was Going to Make It Until…
Like any young, high school gym teacher, Jason Bond struggled to make a living. And no matter how hard he trained, the weight of his college loans seemed heavier with each passing day. But what felt really heavy was the day that he looked at his retirement plan. There was NO WAY he was going to be able to make it on his paltry teacher’s salary (nor did he have any plans to become a greeter at Walmart!)
Learn more about his story here.
Both shows are back this coming week, join us for CFN on Monday and AYT on Tuesday:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #218
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, March 25th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #71
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, March 26th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)