Crowd Forecast News Report #313
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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092219.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 23rd to 27th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 40.0%
Lower: 60.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -20.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 66.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.3%
Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.4
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 72% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 52.2% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 55% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.14% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 60.0% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 25 times in the previous 312 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 28% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.63% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 72% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Tate Reeves campaign maybe
• trend
• Earnings
• China trade news. No negative surprises this week as had one this past Friday
• Interest rates trending down
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Stagnant Market, geopolitical tensions. Iran, China, US earnings. Approaching elections not a concern as long as Trump wins.
• US/China tariff trade problems
• Chart pattern, increased geopolitical pressures, possible armed conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran with US backing Saudi Arabia – increased pressure on political situation in Washington DC.
• Post triple witching Friday.
• Friday’s sell off
• us-china trade war iran tensions
• S&P looks like it reversed to downward this past Thurs & Fri. Volatility measure moving up. US-China trade talks more pessimistic.
• Highs proving a barrier
• Fear&Greed index still showing more greed than fear. But look out below when it starts showing fear.
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Question #4. Which trading platform or broker do you like the best for executing your trades?
• think or swim
• TC2000
• Tastyworks
• schwab
• I don’t have 1
• Tradestation
• Interactivebrokers
• Fidessa by ADM
• E-Trade.
• td ameri trade
• TradeStation
• Fidelity
• Fidelity
• TOS platform from Thinkorswim
• Interactive Brokers
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Gold & Silver will rise higher out of the sideways conjestion. Shorts covering with new buyers coming in.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #239
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 23rd, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Michael Guess of DayTradeSafe.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #95
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 24th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
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