Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (June 25th to June 29th)? (The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 64.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.7%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41 26-Week Average Number of Responses: 49.5
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 59% Chance Higher This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 55.3% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 53% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 0.39% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 55.3% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 44 times in the previous 247 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 59% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.17% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 59% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Good economic indicators like gross national product could go up with Donald Trump in office
• Traditional end of quarter window dressing especially after the down week last week.
• Seasonality and technical
• Am the proverbial monkey throw’g the dart. Look who is steering the world-ship ! Someone w/ the impulse control of a two-year old.
• Elliott
• history
• It’s the trend
• still buying
• risk back on? Draghi forever?
• At bottom of ascending channel
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Expecting continued profit taking at end of strong earnings this quarter & before the beginning of next quarter’s earning reports. Also: – S&P 500 closing below or at its 20d ema for the last two days – Summation indexes for the S&P 500, NASDAQ, NYSE, & DOW all turning lower – Negative divergence on the NYSE AD Line index
• Downtrend continues. About over per stochastics.
• tarrifs
• It’s only the FAANGs that are holding up the market while tariffs are pulling it down for now. With favorable trade talks, the market will respond well but good news is not at hand nor will it be until we get closer to the elections. Even if earnings, 3 weeks away, are good, the response will be muted by forward guidance prospects since CEO’s will be happy to blame their conservative guidance on trade talks in case they don’t meet expectations. It’s always safe to blame someone else if you can.
• Adjusting of accounts for end of quarter. Uncertainty about effect of tariffs.
• SPY is nearing oversold territory
• Trump Tariffs – Fed removing liquidity
• political turmoil
• The market is overbought and due for a downside correction.
• The S&P in June couldn’t reach up to the March high before starting to fall. There’s no upward momentum. Then there are trade wars with the USA versus China, EU, Canada, and Mexico. Doesn’t look promising.
• Dow moving below 12 week EMA
• dead cat Friday poor momentum
• The environment is such that not much buying interest. Sell the highs perhaps the best deal. Most likely a low may be made on Wed Thur.
• on going trade conflict US with rest of the world
Question #4. What are the most important trading or investing-related lessons you have learned so far in 2018?
• risk management. if you account is in the ‘black ‘ you still in the trading game.
• Make a profit in cash
• In the world of options, research simple, not- too many legged options; practice in sim-trade on TOS, If a strategy is profitable, use it often along w/ proper position sizing.
• sell premium see value of covered writes / poor man covered calls
• the value of options
• Protect your positions. Limit losses.
• management of existing positions is more important than finding new positions
• If it goes your way increase position.
• There are a lot of traps out there; be careful.
• The power / ability to identify & effectively trade high reward-to-risk opportunities (always committing to planned stop losses & profit targets), with proper position sizing has been paramount to my success so far this year.
• No major bad news
• Be careful.
• Ignore the news
• portfolio protrection
• For intraday focused day traders one must look at longer time frames or you lose all and everything. Medium and longer term projections, guidance is critical to not get burnt.
• Trade small and take profits often.
• Tight well defined stops below strong support levels.
• make no assumptions
• Don’t over trade so you can be ready to take advantage of a correction and swings low when they happen. The FAANGs should have their own index and not be included in any other index since they disproportionately screw the appearance of any index of which they are a part. Don’t believe anyone who says to sell FB or avoid FB when it shows weakness.
• Thank you for kind survey and hope more people can benefit from your good intent and great project, May you all be successful and content dear friends.
• One tweet makes a difference in today’s price, but otherwise economy great. Fear is still low but rising some.
• When I was a child, the editorial portion of the news occupied a very small part of the news. Today, the editorial portion of the news takes up almost all of the news with very few actual facts being presented. The worst difference is that the editorial portion of the today’s news is presented as though it is fact instead of editorial points of view. Mark Twain said, “If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you’re misinformed.” It’s even worse today!
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #186
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, June 25th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Glenn Thompson of PacificTradingAcademy.com
– Lance Ippolito of AlphaShark.com & TradingCoachLance.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #40
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, June 26th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
– Oliver Schmalholz of NewsQuantified.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Steven Place of InvestingWithOptions.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (June 18th to June 22nd)? (The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 67.1%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 68.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.1%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41 26-Week Average Number of Responses: 49.9
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 53% Chance Lower This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 67.9% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.03% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 55.3% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 15 times in the previous 246 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 47% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.31% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 53% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• 1 Cost 2 0.25 rate done
• Overall bullish attitude of the market
• Trade war smade war? Gold core ts into a buy zone. Why is silver on fire?
• Had a pull back and found support @ the 257.60 level, by the end of week should be about 285.00 level.
• History, and the economy.
• Low – High then a mid week low and then BTD ending slightly up
• Continued grind higher
• Dovish Draghi
• Breadth
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Markets short term overbought & history suggests there is a > 50% probability that the market will be lower the week after triple witching.
• After obtaining “clarity” from FOMC, ECB, BOJ & G-7, we are still left wondering what it really means. After talks with NK, the imposition of tariffs by the US & others, we are wondering where this will go for earnings even if Q2 earnings coming up are good. The VIX is low but uncertainty is high.Tech supported the SPX last week so if it pauses, the SPX is certain to drop a little as it consolidates. There is little inspiration until NFP & earnings weeks away. M&A will help, otherwise down.
• The trade war is heating up and I think that every day will hold a negative surprise as a result.
• Whitehouse nincompoopery prevails.
• elliott wave
• sell in May and stay away
• weak buying
• The S&P couldn’t make it up to the March peak before it started to fade. The financials lack energy, and the tech stocks appear to be close to a peak.
• Trade war BS is totally counter productive and will hurt US industry and slow down the economy.
• The market is overbought and needs to have a downside correction.
• Tariffs Bollinger band snap back candlestick
• summer top fed will raise again
• Fear of trade tariffs and retaliation. That situation is volatile and can change at any moment.
• Trends down to support then up we go.
• trade war
Question #Which trading platform or broker do you like the best for executing your trades?
• TOS
• Still looking. Most suck for options traders.
• thinkorswim
• Trade Station
• Schwab for stocks and options
• Bookmap
• TOS
• TOS
• Fidelity
• schwa
• i am unhappy with all of my brokers ALL OF THEM
• profitable ones
• e*trade
• Interactive Broker for my stock trades (can set up trades & go away) & tastyworks for options (best & most cost effective options trading platform out there).
• Sink or swim
• I like Fidelity but haven’t tried others
• E-Trade
• Interactivebrokers
• TOS
• Ninja Trader & Firetip
• The FBI IG report was incomplete. For example, Attorney #1 wasn’t named. I guess it was Horowitz himself. If not, name the parties. I give the writing a D- and that is generous. This is another example of the corrupt FBI. It’s like an episode of “24” where the bad guys are in power and there is nothing you can do, no place you can go to get justice.
• This is the week which which can be bearish but despite all bearishness it will end up higher even if it is not much.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #185
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, June 18th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Analyze Your Trade Episode #39
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, June 19th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Todd Mitchell of TradingConceptsInc.com
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
NEW! Watch a brief explanation of this report in the video below or listen in podcast format.
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (June 11th to June 15th)? (The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 60.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 7.3%
Responses Submitted This Week: 57 26-Week Average Number of Responses: 50.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 62% Chance Higher This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 65.8% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.36% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 67.9% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 13 times in the previous 245 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 62% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.23% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting an 62% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• According to research done by tastytrade; the S&P performs positively 63% of the time during triple witching. This along with current market strength & the market’s current penchant to ignore the possibility for increased rates & tariffs, seems to indicate a higher close by week’s end.
• Trump getting better trade deals.
• Dividends of 3M Apple were good I think
• Chart pattern suggests /ES will trade above 2807
• potential good new about north korea
• The ECB & BOJ will maintain a loose money policy. The FOMC will raise interest rates the expected amount & will be dovish in their economic assessment. Singapore will go well but only be a political show. Monthly options will expire. Since the market will get some answers that will provide more certainty than it previously had, although still uncertain, the market will react bullishly to the increased level of Central Bank clarity. Amidst the price action, the market will continue to rise.
• Market momentum.
• Fear money leaving Europe .
• The summit that is happening right now and the positive upswing the economy is in.
• elliot wave
• Elliott Wave 5
• S&P closed Friday at its weekly high; momentum still looks upward. Financials look ready to move upward, which would help the S&P.
• Economy currently is doing alright. The stock market traditionally looks at positive side of the state of affairs, while overlooking negative side. The stock market also overlooks any potential negative long term effects of economic policies. The market definitely has a optimistic bias toward events.
• investors are watching the world political leaders with anticipation hopeful that the outcome will be positive for global economy with united states leading
• Just below resistance, but bullish weekly candle last week closing at its high.
• Good news.
• Momentum towards earnings. Interest rate hike factored in.
• Markets are coming off from a lower low and trying to hit all time highs
• should be a volatile week
• Martin Armstrong
• Uptrend cintinues..
• Oil starts heading up. So up goes the markets. Watching 2750 support and expecting break up and out of 2780 to continue. Oil co tinues its basing and moves towards 66.80
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• tariffs
• Poor reaction to the G-7 outcome and a disappointment from the meeting with North Korea
• graph shows top of channel for now. must hedge all trades
• Seasonality and technical.
• cautious optimism
• Bad news from G7 meeting and N. Korea summit
• Market is currently overbought and needs to back and fill.
• Market up major stocks down
• Summer building a top
• It looks like exhausted and profit taking
• dd
Question #4. What are your primary trading and/or investing goals for the 2nd half of 2018?
• Bullish trading
• Make money
• To make an income
• stocks and to beat S&P
• options hedging puts and calls
• 20%
• Consistancy
• To recuperate losses of FEB March
• Safty
• —-Monthly income thro’ options —-dividend growth stocks w/ 2-4 investment term — learn more about short term trading- using more complex orders to capture shorter term gains & stop loss limits for limiting losses.
• make money
• Profit
• Avoid drawdowns..
• Continued ~3.5% gains / month
• Being positive
• Continue successful growth.
• 2% RISE
• With the market rising now on the same news that caused it to fall previously, my goal is to reevaluate how much risk I want to take prior to the next manic depressive move. I’ve trimmed my expectation now to only 40% of the gains that I thought were possible in January.
• Beat the S&P.
• income investment
• Continue to do as during the 1st half. Cntinue to learn and reduce mistakes more.
• Preserve capital in front of volatile announcements or happenings.
• Be in the market and try to make use of fundamentals with use of technical direction
• Make the plan. Stick to the plan. Lose the bad habits!
• To sell a stock I’ve owned since last summer
• Minimum 30% up.
• I am cautiously optimistic so I will maintain about 65% in options and the rest in cash.
• Take profits more often
• I plan to add funds a little at a time any time the market is down, because I feel confident that eventually it will up and I can get returns on the invested funds.
• Avoiding any significant drawdowns
• Increase daily PnL target by $200
• Broaden trading strategies.to be better able to adapt to changing circumstances be it the market, health or personal life style choices.
• Make money with survey
• There may be a more equitable distribution of wealth in the world. some countries dump and dump their products into poor countries thereby killing infant indigenous industries in its infancy. Spreading wealth.does not decrease prosperity of the rich. it rather increases consumption of the poor thereby bringing social harmony and political unity
• Thanks great service brother
• What sectors are going to gain in 2H. What resources do U use to trade/invest more profitably ? What options strategies do U use most often & why ?
• Silver wowed last week. COT looks bullish. May drag gold along.
• I hope that the FBI IG reveals the details and the proof of what has been obvious for the last two years and that AG Sessions goes back to work. We all are sorry that Charles Krauthammer is near death and will be gone soon. His lust for life, his courage, his dignity dealing with his misfortune, and his intellect are an inspiration to us all and should underscore how lucky we are to be sound of body and to see what is possible if we don’t give up.
• The midterm elections will tell a lot. Hedge your investments.
• Re: #4: It not just about the money. Some traders seek to maximize profits while others may seek to minimize the need for adjustments.Both approaches have value. However, combining the two is the real goal! zzz
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #184
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, June 11th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Jane Gallina of SeeJaneTrade.com
Moderator: – Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #38
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, June 12th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Guests:
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
Moderator: – E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
