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Crowd Forecast News Report #265
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport102118.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 22nd to October 26th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 43.3%
Lower: 56.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -13.3%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 32
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.3
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 54% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.14% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 56.7% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 36 times in the previous 264 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 36% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.07% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 64% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Great earnings
• good earnings reports
• Bargain Hunting & Solid Earnings Reports
• history
• at support now
• Best six months of the year starts November
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Sucker Rally failed
• Doesn’t seem to be getting much attention.
• Market sentiment negative.
• rising oil prices and rising interest rates
• Trend appears to be down
• Earnings disappointments and downgrades
• still in October
• The downside correction continues as moving averages are violated.
• Market still appears to be in a downtrend; so favoring continuation. Not highly confident, as positive earnings announcements this coming week could lift market.
Partner Offer:
Tuesday, October 23rd at 7:00pm ET: They’re insiders – CEOs, CFOs, board members and other executives with access to key, non-public information about their companies. Information they use to get very rich.
Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
• I don’t really have one. I just go with instinct
• Increases in net worth
• Charts and VectorVest
• Aggregate Percentage yield on my beat stocks
• Risk/reward ratios
• I track every trade & calculate results at end of each month
• market moving my stock picks higher and if the companies continue to grow with increased revenues.
• Document all trades in spreadsheet
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• none
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #200
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, October 22nd, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Serge Berger of TheSteadyTrader.com (first time guest!)
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #53
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
-TBA
Partner Offer:
Tuesday, October 23rd at 7:00pm ET: They’re insiders – CEOs, CFOs, board members and other executives with access to key, non-public information about their companies. Information they use to get very rich.
2
Analyze Your Trade Episode #52
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
4:40 – FB
8:20 – BIDU
11:50 – MU
17:30 – SPY
25:00 – AMRN
27:50 – PANW
31:00 – CGC
33:50 – BAC
37:10 – Individual trade ideas.
42:30 – AMZN
47:40 – SSNC
50:00 – MSFT
53:50 – AVGO
56:00 – TWTR
59:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Dean: “Beyond the Noise” FREE Weekly Newsletter
From Jim: Episode #13: OptionProfessor Weekly Update
From Neil: Enter Your Email for the Best ETF for the Next 10 Years
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT101618
Crowd Forecast News Episode #199
Partner Offer: Live Training & Trading Event this Saturday! Click here to learn more.
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– George Papazov of TRADEPRO Academy (first time guest!)
– Brad Powell of ETFDynamics.com (first time guest!)
– Toni Hansen of ToniHansen.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
6:40 – Question #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
14:00 – Question #3; Why?
38:00 – Future of the tech sector.
52:00 – Trade ideas of the week.
1:08:40 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From George: Get 3 secret trading indicators to help you make consistent profit.
From Brad: ETF Sector Report: A Must-Have Resource for Today’s ETF Markets!
From Matt: Live Training & Trading Event
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
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CFN101518
Crowd Forecast News Report #264
Partner Offer: Do you have enough capital to trade? If not, click here.
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport101418.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 15th to October 19th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 51.4%
Lower: 48.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.9%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 66.4%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.4%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 68.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 37
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.5
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 54% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 66% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 3.84% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower (this just happens to be the exact opposite of last week). Similar conditions have been observed 26 times in the previous 263 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 54% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.06% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 54% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Partner Offer: In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Whether S&P will go higher this week depends on earning reports from NFLX and PG. It depends especially on future guidance indicated by these companies.
• Market has corrected, and is ready to move on up.
• I think things are still leaning Republican and it may stay bullish or go back up some maybe I guess
• weak bounce, bearish flad
• Friday afternoon’s rally off of support gave us a hammer. Continued upside is expected. Next resistance could be at 2885-90, the midpoint of the Bollinger band.
• I believe the market is manipulated to some degree by Wall Street. The some for the silver market (J.P. Morgan, etc.)
• Rebound time.
• Market is extreme oversold.
• Bounce off resistance
• done selling
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• broken trend lines on bigger tech stocks as well as macro events going on short term. Economy stable for earnings reports starting should consolidate markets in month ahead
• The big question after Wed/Thurs drop is 1) is this just a correction, or 2) is this the crash so many were expecting. We’re not going to know the answer to the above until the data is in at the end of next week. I suspect it’s a “correction” and the next crash will come inside the next 1 to 3 years during which there could be several more corrections. So next week I’m expecting the sell off to continue but reach some point of consolidation / stabilization. After that the markets could continue upwards with a bit more volatility than was occuring prior to this week.
• Interest rate rise uncertainty
• The downtrend that started after the Presidential emergency tweet on that Wednesday 10 days ago will continue. It will end when the public says “just get me out”.
• Retest of the recent low
• too much debt economic instability consumer spending wanes stocks will be affected negatively
• October swoon
• Lower highs & lower lows & below 100 day moving average & at 200 day moving average
• Overvalued market
• History shows this as a bad week.
• I really dont know y but that s wut i think it will b
• High volatility and big downdrafts make the markets look risky to the downside right now
• Appears to have entered “a” wave
• Last week drop
No Prediction:
• I gave no answer because the market has been on such a roller coaster ride that I don’t even want to hazard a guess for such a short term.
Partner Offer: In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
Question #4a. Do you think the drop in the markets this week were the start of a longer downtrend or a minor correction on the way to new highs (i.e. 6 months from now do you think the S&P500 will be higher or lower than today)?
Question #4b. Why?
“Minor correction (S&P500 heading higher)” Respondent Answers:
• October typically has been a volatile month for the stock market. Additionally, there have been pullbacks to some extent prior to earning season. Investing community is a bit more wary prior to this earning season because of potential warnings which companies might issue because of tariffs and the trade war. I am hoping the market can digest any of these warnings and continue its climb up. Especially tech stocks such as Apple, AMZN, & Microsoft.
• Republicans will be victorious in my opinion are better candidates say especially against Baria
• explained in previous comment
• Got a feeling
• nothing changed fundamentally
• In previous instances of these bounces off of support, the market has moved up for a month or more. After that, it gets quite unpredictable.
• Market was overbought to the max. The downtrend will continue and will end when the public says “just get me out”. Then the market can return to new highs.
• Earnings & economy are strong.
“Start of a longer downtrend (S&P500 heading lower)” Respondent Answers:
• too much debt currency will suffer trade war bonds, pensions, banks will suffer less consumer spending and lose confidence
• If trade war with China, inflation will go higher & lower profits which will cut P/E ratios.
• Interest rate increases, and perception the mid-year election results are obvious.
• .atket overvalued for too long and inverters are moving to safe havens
• Over priced stocks
• Bull is too long in the tooth
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• The big CRASH I’m expecting still has 1 to 3 years to occur and I believe it will occur after the offshore money coming into the US markets begins drying up. The US will be the last stop in the search for a safe haven. That’s when what is happening that’s beginning to occur in troubled economies around the world begins finally to occur here. At that point the economic crisis will be worldwide. No more safe havens to flee too.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #199
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, October 15th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– George Papazov of TRADEPRO Academy (first time guest!)
– Brad Powell of ETFDynamics.com (first time guest!)
– Toni Hansen of ToniHansen.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #52
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 16th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Partner Offer: In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
Crowd Forecast News Report #263
Partner Offer: Wealth365 starts Monday! Top Financial Speakers Share Strategies Online.
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport100718b.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 8th to October 12th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 48.6%
Lower: 51.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.9%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 67.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 69.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 35
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.8
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 66% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details :Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 62.1% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 52% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.39% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.4% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 35 times in the previous 262 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 34% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.18% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 66% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Equities still best place
• Market is oversold from last week sell off.
• Kava nomination complete
• Seasonality
• bounce back
• still buying
• good earnings
• based on everything that i see
• hit 50dma and bounced
• Correction is underway but it may find a bottom shortly ending the week slightly higher
• Any excuse to continue this upward blowoff. Latest news is Kavanaugh.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• lying Donald Trump
• Rising interest rates.
• The market reached a peak on Wednesday with the Presidential tweet warning and has gone on the defensive ever since. The moving averages are being tested and broken.
• Interest rates appear to be destined to rise more. This becomes a problem for those in debt, including the US Govt and many companies. Even bank stocks, which theoretically gain with higher interest rates, are looking weak.
• Told ya
• Seasonal likelihood.
• Gut
Partner Offer, the TimingResearch shows are off this week, check out this instead:
Join thousands of fellow traders for the online-only Wealth365 Summit October 8-13th where you’ll be exposed to more speakers, new topics and hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of free prizes from top wealth experts.
Question #4. What trading-related skills do you want to learn or improve over the next few months? How are you planning on doing this?
• Timing portfolio management
• being to see exactly every 15 minutes what is going to happen
• option spreads.
• follow stop losses
• TIming on exiting positions.
• Gold projections – no plan
• Everything fails if we do not follow some system
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• i do well but i would like to do better
Partner Offer, the TimingResearch shows are off this week, check out this instead:
The TimingResearch shows are off this week, check out this instead:
Join thousands of fellow traders for the online-only Wealth365 Summit October 8-13th where you’ll be exposed to more speakers, new topics and hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of free prizes from top wealth experts.
Analyze Your Trade Episode #51
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Hima Reddy of HimaReddy.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
6:20 – NVDA
12:50 – T
20:10 – AMD
28:40 – ROP
34:40 – AAPL
37:10 – TLT
40:50 – CRON
43:40 – FB
47:40 – GE
51:20 – Trade ideas of the week.
59:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Hima: The Winning RSI Playbook
From Christian: Learn about his all day trading room and options scanner here
From Dean: “Beyond the Noise” FREE Weekly Newsletter
From Jim: Episode #11: OptionProfessor Weekly Update
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT100218
Crowd Forecast News Episode #198
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Tim Racette of EminiMind.com (first time guest!)
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
9:50 – Question #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
11:30 – Question #3; Why?
38:40 – Question #4; What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)
54:20 – Live Audience question: “Anyone have a comment on the banking / fianance sector now that we are past the September FED meeting?”
55:40 – Trade ideas of the week and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Neil: Reliable Indicators That Actually Work
From Rob: InvestiQuant’s IQ Swing Navigator is one of the most valuable, daily market briefings you can get.
From Tim: Futures Trading Weekly Newsletter — Improve your trading today!
From Norman: The Disciplined Trader Mastery Program (Free Trial)
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN100118
Crowd Forecast News Report #262
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport093018.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 1st to October 5th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 62.1%
Lower: 37.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 24.1%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 63.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 59.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -9.4%
Responses Submitted This Week: 31
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.8
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 52% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 40.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.27% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 62.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 77 times in the previous 261 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 52% of the time, but with an average S&P500 move of 0.12% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 52% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• I like Donald
• It’s a bull market!
• Bounce off of daily 20 period EMA & higher low.
• 50 d ma and 20 day ma up, at bottom of upward channel
• Holding the 50% retracement long in the S&P at $2905
• Mid-term elections.
• history.
• still buying
• The S&P was in consolidation the previous week, which provides a good setup for a rise this week. Also, a nice GDP increase and good earnings expectations should help.
• Elliott wave pattern.
• Large volume trades show more selling. Low volume trades still show buying. I don’t know whether “the top” is in yet, but I’m sure not going to buy the dips.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Overbought markets. 3rd qtr ended – sellers should return.
• Tariffs
• Current white administration is bringing too much controversy and distrust
• Due to the Presidents nonsense position size
• Its ending pullback in all my s tocks
• Tarriffs!
Partner Offer:
It looks like a little “fish hook” on the charts…
Whenever Jason Bond spots this weird pattern, he dips his line on the water. Most of the time, he reels in a profit.
Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)
• position size, stops, sometimes scaling
• I try to keep position sizes of relatively the same size.
• Mental stops
• I don’t know
• start small, 8% loss stops, take off profits 35%
• Scaling in.
• Daily loss limit, weekly loss limit, # of stops per day.
• Position size
• Position size, stops, market direction.
• Scaling
• stops
• Proper stops, no scaling, support & resistance, use of trailing stops if trending
• Position sizing used with various strategies. All in all out also used depending on strategy used. Stops are very important and honoring them is critical in maintaining risk management.
• position size
• Algorithmic
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• seasonality is against my answers.
• Is there a better and close too 100% certainty to read the market in the USA??
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #198
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, October 1st, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Tim Racette of EminiMind.com (first time guest!)
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Analyze Your Trade Episode #51
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Hima Reddy of HimaReddy.com
Partner Offer:
It looks like a little “fish hook” on the charts…
Whenever Jason Bond spots this weird pattern, he dips his line on the water. Most of the time, he reels in a profit.
Analyze Your Trade Episode #50
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
5:00 – JPM
10:50 – TREX
18:10 – NFLX
29:50 – WRD
41:00 – BAC
52:20 – Trade ideas for the week.
1:05:20 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Michael: Get coupon code for $50 off a monthly membership!
From Larry: Selling Options for Income, Profits & Opportunistic Hedging Success
From Anka: Subscribe to Anka’s weekly videos on YouTube
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
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AYT092518
Crowd Forecast News Episode #197
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
– Lee Harris of EmojiTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
4:30 – Question #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
8:20 -Why?
30:00 -Question #4; Which indicator influences your trading the most?
48:30 – Trade ideas of the week and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Lee: Emoji Trading Order Flow Suite Trial
From Mike: Follow @OptionsMike on Twitter.
From Roy: Give Your Trades the “Green Light”!
From Jim: Episode #10: OptionProfessor Weekly Update
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN092418