Week 140 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 65% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out what everyone thinks about their best and worst experiences with trading and the proposed schedule change for the TimingResearch reports.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 65% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 63% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 1.84% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Lower (less than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bullish side. Similar conditions have been observed 17 times in the previous 139 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 35% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.16% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 65% Chance Higher for the week.
Click here to download TRReport052916.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, May 31st, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– James Ramelli of AlphaShark.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Moderator:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
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